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Points of Focus
- US Bitcoin ETFs took in $286.3 million on Oct. 26 and 27.
- IBIT supplied 91% of the inflow, against 47% of the Oct. 22-23 outflow.
- Six moving averages span $81,227-$81,889, a 0.8% band around BTC.
Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $81,506 on Oct. 28 at the time of writing, back above $81,000 after four straight daily closes below it from Oct. 24 to 27.
US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) took in $110.3 million on Oct. 26 and $176.0 million on Oct. 27, which reverses 37% of the $773.5 million lost on Oct. 22 and 23.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ends its two-day meeting on Oct. 28, and BTC has moved 1.7 times a normal day in the 24 hours after its six 2026 statements. The setup pairs returning ETF demand with a market that has no trend, so the size of the reaction is a better test than its direction.
Bitcoin ETF inflows reach $286.3 million, with IBIT supplying 91%
SoSoValue data shows IBIT took in $110.3 million and $151.5 million on Oct. 26 and Oct. 27, respectively, or $261.8 million of the total, with Fidelity’s FBTC adding $24.5 million. The Oct. 22 and 23 outflow was spread wider, with IBIT at 47% of the $773.5 million and FBTC and ARKB at 46%.
BlackRock’s fund appears to be absorbing the swing in both directions, while other issuers sit out the rebound (inference). US Ether (ETH) ETFs lost $148.8 million on the same two days, so the demand is specific to Bitcoin. Flows remain below the $1.074 billion taken in from Oct. 19 to Oct. 21, which included the largest single-day inflow since Sept. 22, and the $729 million withdrawn on Oct. 7 and 8 shows how quickly the sign can flip.
Bitcoin price reaction to FOMC statements runs 1.7 times a normal day
The US Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept. 16 after markets priced the move at 68.2% on Sept. 2, and it held at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29 over three hawkish dissents.
Binance hourly candles show BTC moved a mean of 2.79% in the 24 hours after the six 2026 statements, against 1.63% for a normal 18:00 UTC window since Jan. 1.
Direction was mixed, with declines of 6.78% after Jan. 28 and 5.30% after June 17 against a gain of 1.18% after the Sept. 16 hike. The median agrees at 1.81% against 1.09%, though six meetings is a small sample.
Deribit’s volatility index reads 37.22, implying a 1.95% one-day move, or $79,912-$83,090 around the $81,501 index price, which is 0.7 times the FOMC-window average. BTC was lower one hour after five of the six statements, so a dip on the headline would match the 2026 pattern without predicting the day.
Bitcoin technical analysis puts six averages between $81,227 and $81,889
TradingView lists the daily candle opening at $80,811, reaching $81,687 and falling to $80,505, with BTC at $81,374 at 08:57 UTC on Oct. 28.
The 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $81,227, 50-day EMA at $80,761, 100-day EMA at $77,765, and 200-day EMA at $76,395 give upward signals, while the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) at $81,418, 20-day EMA at $81,712, 30-day EMA at $81,724, 20-day SMA at $81,839, and 50-day SMA at $81,889 give downward signals.
The relative strength index (RSI) reads 48, the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) level is -423, signaling downward momentum, and the average directional index (ADX) at 17 shows a weak trend. The summary gauge splits into nine downward, nine neutral, and eight upward signals at 08:57 UTC, which fits a price sitting inside a 0.8% cluster.
Support starts at $81,227 and $80,761, then the Oct. 24 low of $79,221, with the 100-day EMA beside the $78,000 max pain and the True Market Mean Glassnode put near $77,000 on Sept. 23. A close above $81,889 clears the cluster and puts the 30-day SMA at $82,695 in range, while a close below $80,761 exposes $79,221.
Bitcoin leverage stays below its Oct. 22 level
Binance BTCUSDT open interest is 94,792 BTC, or $7.67 billion, on Oct. 28, 3.3% below the 98,002 BTC of Oct. 22 and 1.8% above the 93,131 BTC recorded on Oct. 19.
The funding rate was 0.0079% at 08:00 UTC on Oct. 28, and the top-trader long-short position ratio rose from 1.48 on Oct. 23 to 1.93 on Oct. 28, lifting their long share from 59.7% to 65.9%.
The positioning, therefore, isn’t what threatens the cluster; the Fed statement will decide whether ETF demand carries BTC above $81,889 or the 2026 pattern of declines returns.
Deribit lists 135,437 BTC of open interest for the Oct. 30 expiry, with 88,296 BTC of calls against 47,141 BTC of puts and max pain at $78,000.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
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