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Points of Focus
- Bitcoin trades near $77,660 as the 10-year Treasury yield hits 4.812%.
- September Fed hike odds jump to 68% from about 40% a week earlier.
- Long-term holder distribution reaches 281,900 BTC, the highest of 2026.
Bitcoin traded near $77,660 on Wednesday after losing the $79,000 area while US Treasury yields moved higher. Reuters reported that the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.812%, its highest since November 2023, while the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike rose to 68.2% from 39.6% a week earlier.
Renewed US-Iran hostilities pushed Brent crude above $95 a barrel, adding to inflation concerns. Higher oil prices add to inflation risk, while rising Treasury yields increase the relative appeal of government bonds as Bitcoin struggles around the $77,000 area.
Bitcoin price pressure builds as Treasury yields rise
Bitcoin fell alongside US equities. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.03% on Tuesday and the S&P 500 fell 0.71% as oil prices and bond yields climbed. The synchronized decline supports a macro link to Bitcoin’s pullback, though onchain data point to a separate source of potential supply.
CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr. reported in a Sept. 1 analysis that 30-day cumulative distribution by long-term Bitcoin holders rose from 174,500 BTC on Aug. 18 to 281,900 BTC on Aug. 28, a 61.5% increase and the highest reading of 2026. Long-term holder MVRV stood at 1.60 on Aug. 31, meaning those coins were valued about 60% above their average realized value.
The data indicate that the rebound increased the incentive for long-term holders to take profits. The 281,900 BTC figure measures distribution activity, not coins confirmed as sold on exchanges, so it shouldn’t be read as direct evidence of 281,900 BTC hitting spot markets.
Old Bitcoin is hitting the market again.
CryptoQuant’s Axel Adler Jr.:
Long-term holder 30-day distribution jumped from 174,500 bitcoin:native to 281,900 bitcoin:native between Aug 18–28.That’s +61.5%.
Highest LTH sell flow since early 2026.LTH MVRV:
1.31 → 1.64
Still ~1.60… pic.twitter.com/7rhCdrASBF— ChartSage (@CryptoChartSage) September 1, 2026
Bitcoin ETF flows remain choppy near $77K
ETF data provide a counterpoint to the selling pressure. Farside recorded $216.7 million in net inflows on Aug. 31, led by $205.9 million into BlackRock’s IBIT, after US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $201.9 million in net outflows on Aug. 28. The reversal shows that ETF flows have turned choppy rather than consistently bearish.
Bitcoin still failed to reclaim $80,000 after the Aug. 31 inflow. The next macro test is Friday’s August jobs report on Sept. 4. Economists polled by Reuters expect 56,000 new jobs before the Fed meets on Sept. 15-16.
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