Points of Focus

• Standard Chartered’s report says stablecoin velocity has doubled to 6x/month, reducing the need for new tokens.
• USDC (25%) drives the surge via Solana/Base, while USDT (58%) stays a low-velocity savings tool.
• Faster turnover challenges supply growth, but issuer profits may still push expansion.

A March 31, 2026, report from Standard Chartered says stablecoin velocity has doubled over the past two years, with tokens now changing hands roughly six times per month on average. 

This finding directly challenges a core assumption behind the bank’s $2 trillion stablecoin market cap forecast for end-2028 – that velocity would remain stable. Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, reportedly noted that higher velocity reduces the need for net new token issuance. Even so, the bank has maintained its $2 trillion projection.

Standard Chartered confirms: stablecoin velocity has doubled in two years, now ~6 turns per month, yet the bank reaffirms its $2T market call by 2028.This shifts the narrative from “adoption coming” to actual flows accelerating.

TradFi integration, cross-border payments, and…

— Dave Burrells (@dburrells) April 1, 2026

USDC on Solana and Base is driving the velocity surge

The velocity increase is concentrated in Circle’s USDC, which makes up about 25% of total stablecoin supply. USDC began diverging from Tether’s USDT in mid-2024, increasingly replacing traditional banking rails as it gained traction in TradFi use cases. That shift accelerated after the GENIUS Act established a federal stablecoin framework in July 2025.

A second surge reportedly began in October 2025, when USDC velocity on Solana and Base jumped due to early AI-agent payment flows via x402, Coinbase’s open-source payment protocol. Stablecoins on Solana already turn over two to three times faster than on Ethereum. Those volumes have since cooled, with Kendrick flagging the October spike as potentially temporary.

ai agents going crazy with x402 payments and ERC-8004 adoption

solana pushing $4.5B daily dex volume, memes still running

prediction markets hitting ATH transaction counts

stablecoins getting embedded everywhere, USDC integration velocity is real

— aixbt (@aixbt_agent) February 18, 2026

By contrast, USDT remains a low-velocity savings instrument in emerging markets, with no meaningful change in turnover. Kendrick described this divergence clearly: emerging market savings for USDT, TradFi replacement for USDC.

Why faster turnover puts pressure on supply projections

Standard Chartered’s $2 trillion forecast assumed higher transaction volumes would require more tokens. However, increased velocity breaks this link, as faster circulation allows the same transaction volume with fewer tokens in supply.

LATEST: 🏦 Standard Chartered projects stablecoins will reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028, generating up to $1 trillion in new US Treasury bill demand and potentially pausing 30-year bond auctions. pic.twitter.com/QWQNfswt7y

— CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) February 23, 2026

Kendrick says the forecast still holds, as new high-velocity use cases are adding demand rather than replacing existing activity and haven’t disrupted stablecoins’ low-velocity savings role in emerging markets. Velocity is now a key variable alongside total supply in the bank’s outlook.

Concentration paradox and issuer economics counter the velocity narrative

Looked closely, the “velocity doubling” headline may be overstating the aggregate shift. USDC holds roughly 25% of the stablecoin market supply, and it’s USDC where velocity has surged. USDT, the dominant issuer by supply (about 58%), has seen no meaningful velocity change. When supply-weighted, the overall rise in market-wide velocity appears far more modest.

Market cap is a vanity metric but velocity is a sanity metric. USDC is currently doing nearly double the transaction volume of USDT despite having about half the supply. This means every dollar of USDC is working four times harder than a dollar of Tether.

We are seeing the…

— Murtuza J Merchant (@murtuza_merc) March 13, 2026

Standard Chartered’s analysis also overlooks a structural counterforce. Tether’s Q4 2025 attestation (January 30, 2026, verified by BDO) reported over $10 billion in annual net profit, largely from yields on a $141 billion US Treasury portfolio. Similarly, Circle’s February 25, 2026, earnings showed Q4 reserve income of $733 million out of $770 million revenue (~95%), with full-year reserve income at $2.637 billion of $2.747 billion.

Together, Tether and Circle control over 85% of the stablecoin market, and both rely heavily on Treasury interest from reserve assets. A velocity-driven slowdown in supply directly pressures this revenue model, creating a strong structural incentive to keep expanding issuance – a tension the report doesn’t address.