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Points of Focus
- Bitcoin traded near $69.6K after Treasury doubled long-bond buybacks to at least $4B per operation.
- The 30-year yield fell from 5.337% to about 5.18% as the dollar weakened.
- BTC reclaimed its 100-day average near $68.98K, while Fed inflation concerns keep rates in focus.
Bitcoin traded near $69,600 on Thursday after briefly testing $70,000, extending a rally that accelerated as the US Treasury moved to ease pressure in long-dated bonds. BTC pushed through $69,000 as Treasury yields and the dollar fell, while derivatives activity surged during the breakout.
Treasury’s $4B buyback plan pulls long-term yields lower
The Treasury said it will raise liquidity-support buybacks for 10- to 30-year securities from a $2 billion cap to at least $4 billion per operation.
The announcement came after the 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.337%, its highest since 2007. The yield later retreated to around 5.18%, while the 10-year moved toward 4.66% and the dollar index fell to about 98.85.
BREAKING: The US Treasury announces it will double the size long-term US government debt buybacks following the rapid surge in US Treasury yields.
Repurchases of $2 billion will now be increased to "at least" $4 billion, the US Treasury said.
The move is intended to provide…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 19, 2026
Lower long-term yields and a weaker dollar coincided with gains across US stocks, bonds, gold and Bitcoin. The larger buybacks do not begin until Sept. 9, so Wednesday’s market move came before the Treasury had deployed the expanded program.
Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, reacted to the Treasury move by revisiting his long-running line about bond traders waiting for policymakers to panic.
In an X post, he joked that traders could stop panicking when “Scott Bessent starts panicking.” The intervention drove yields lower, but the planned $4 billion operations remain small against the roughly $32.2 trillion Treasury market.
I've been saying "bond traders can stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking."
I guess I should have said, "bond traders can stop panicking when Scott Bessent starts panicking."
*TREASURY DEPT ANNOUNCES INCREASED SIZES OF LONG-END BUYBACKS
*LONG-TERM US YIELDS DROP ON… pic.twitter.com/ZsUH1DoNus
— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) August 19, 2026
Macro strategist Craig Shapiro had focused on the structural pressure behind rising yields a day earlier. He described 30-year Treasury yields near 5.33% as “structural, not noise,” citing sovereign borrowing, corporate debt issuance and changes in the bond-market buyer base. The buyback announcement pushed yields lower without removing those supply pressures.
MORNING MARKET BRIEF
Tuesday, August 18, 2026TL;DR
1/ Bond markets are forcing a reckoning equities have been ignoring: 30-year Treasuries at 5.33% and gilts near 6% are structural, not noise.
2/ Hormuz is open on Iran's terms only, Trump killed the ceasefire MOU, and VLCC…
— Craig Shapiro (@ces921) August 18, 2026
Bitcoin ETF demand adds support beyond the short squeeze
Leverage amplified Bitcoin’s move. MarketWatch reported more than $1 billion in BTC shorts were liquidated within 60 minutes as price crossed $69,000, forcing bearish positions out as the rally accelerated.
ETF demand had improved before the squeeze. Farside recorded $297.5 million of US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows on Aug. 17 and another $189.3 million on Aug. 18, bringing the two-day total to $486.8 million. Those flows show institutional fund demand was already improving before forced short covering intensified above $69,000.
Bitcoin reclaims 100-day average as $70K returns
According to Barchart, BTC moved above its 100-day moving average at $68,983.73, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index reached 68.17. BTC remains below its 200-day moving average at $74,928.35, leaving that level as the main longer-term technical hurdle.
Fed policy remains the main macro risk to the drop in yields. July meeting minutes showed a larger group of policymakers believed further tightening would likely be needed if inflation stayed above the 2% target. The Treasury’s expanded long-bond buybacks begin Sept. 9 and run through Nov. 4.
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