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Bitcoin is holding near $77,000 even as oil markets surge and geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz intensify. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $77,038.01, up marginally over the past 24 hours but still unable to reclaim the $80,000 level after multiple attempts this month.
The move comes as oil prices push higher and risks of an extended US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz intensify, raising fresh concerns about inflation and global liquidity.
Bitcoin’s recent price behavior stands out. While traditional markets reacted sharply to oil volatility, BTC has remained within a narrow band between roughly $74,500 and $77,950 over the past week.
Data from TradingView shows BTC failed twice to break above $80,000, with the latest rejection reinforcing that level as a key resistance. Over the same period, major altcoins including Ether, XRP, and Solana posted weekly losses, while Bitcoin dominance edged higher as capital rotated into the largest asset.
This stability reflects a market that has already absorbed earlier selling pressure.
Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of Split Research, noted that the sell-side pressure seen during March and April has largely cleared, leaving a thinner market where fewer participants are willing to exit at current levels. That shift is visible in price action, where BTC reacts less aggressively to headlines and more to volatility conditions.
Macro pressures are starting to shape market positioning more clearly.
Brent crude has moved above $110 per barrel, while WTI crude trades near $100 as markets price in supply disruptions linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. The chokepoint handles a significant share of global oil shipments, and any prolonged blockade risks feeding directly into inflation expectations.
For Bitcoin, rising inflation risk feeds directly into rate expectations and global liquidity.
At the same time, macro events are stacking up. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision, alongside policy signals from the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, is creating a compressed window where multiple liquidity drivers could shift simultaneously.
$BTC is back at $77,000.
Big day ahead: the FOMC interest rate decision and major earnings reports are on deck.
Expect volatility, stay sharp. https://t.co/Lpkh5XTnsM pic.twitter.com/oIH8zUGdKF
— Wealthmanager (@Wealthmanager) April 29, 2026
Bitcoin’s muted reaction suggests traders aren’t repositioning aggressively yet. Instead, the market appears to be waiting for confirmation from policy outcomes rather than reacting to geopolitical headlines alone.
While price has held steady, underlying flows show a more cautious picture.
According to SoSoValue data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of around $89.7 million on April 28, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading withdrawals. This follows a larger $263 million outflow earlier in the week, breaking a multi-day inflow streak.
According to SoSoValue, on April 28 (ET), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $89.68 million, with BlackRock's IBIT leading outflows at $112 million. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a total net outflow of $21.80 million, with BlackRock's ETHA leading outflows at $13.17… pic.twitter.com/4UcZB2hB6J
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) April 29, 2026
These outflows matter because ETFs have been a primary source of marginal demand since their launch in 2024. When flows reverse, price tends to shift from trend to consolidation.
Liquidity data reinforces that view. A recent $292 million liquidation event highlighted how thin market depth has become, with relatively small capital flows capable of moving prices sharply. That creates an environment where stability at current levels doesn’t necessarily signal strength.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains in a mixed position.
Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, noted that BTC is holding above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages but still trades below the 200-day average near $84,500. Momentum indicators such as RSI remain neutral around 55, while ADX signals a weak trend environment.
This combination points to consolidation rather than a directional move.
Willy Woo also highlighted that the next key test sits near $79,000, which aligns with the cost basis of recent buyers. A failure to break this level cleanly keeps the market in a holding pattern.
The next test for BTC is cleanly breaking the cost basis of recent investors (79k).
I give it 30% odds on doing this on this attempt. After that, if BTC manages to hold this price level above 65k and not break down, then the chances of a structural bottom increases… https://t.co/03TZWYF0NM
— Willy Woo (@willywoo) April 28, 2026
At the same time, bearish sentiment hasn’t fully disappeared.
Classic $BTC bull trap in play.
Don't fight the trend.
Bitcoin looks bearish. pic.twitter.com/Vl6wEJCXj2
— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) April 29, 2026
This mix of signals helps explain why BTC continues to trade within a defined range.
Bitcoin’s resilience is increasingly evident against a weaker broader market, where most altcoins have posted losses over the past week. Dogecoin (DOGE) stands out as a rare exception with a modest gain, but it hasn’t altered the overall trend of capital rotating back into Bitcoin during periods of uncertainty.
This pattern is consistent with past cycles, as traders typically reduce exposure to higher-risk assets in favor of BTC when macro conditions tighten, reinforcing its market dominance while institutional narratives continue to support its role as a core asset.
“Bitcoin is unequivocally the best inflation hedge that there is.” -Paul Tudor Jones pic.twitter.com/KCwnezi7sk
— Bitcoin Archive (@BitcoinArchive) April 28, 2026
However, that narrative isn’t translating into immediate price expansion.
Even bullish calls such as Arthur Hayes’ $125,000 target for Bitcoin by 2026 haven’t been enough to push BTC above resistance in the short term.
JUST IN: BitMex founder Arthur Hayes just said he is long Bitcoin and gives a price target of $125,000 by end of 2026.
“It’s time to break out.” pic.twitter.com/nDbeoMYK2Z
— Bitcoin Archive (@BitcoinArchive) April 27, 2026
Bitcoin is trading within a well-defined range, with support near $75,000, a level many analysts see as key to preserving the structure in place since late March. A break below could open the door to a deeper pullback toward the mid-$60,000 zone, where prior capitulation occurred. On the upside, $79,000–$80,000 remains a firm resistance, and without a decisive breakout, momentum is unlikely to shift.
BREAKING NEWS:
🇮🇷 🇨🇳 IRAN SHIFTING OIL EXPORTS TO CHINA VIA RAILWAYS FOR LOW PRICES BYPASS MARITIME PRESSURE.
THIS COULD CRASH THE PRICES OF OIL… pic.twitter.com/pB2v0iZjEt
— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) April 29, 2026
Meanwhile, macro risks, from oil volatility to central bank policy, remain in play, though Bitcoin’s muted reaction suggests either prior pricing-in or a lack of conviction. What matters next is whether these forces drive real changes in liquidity and positioning.
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