• XRP is down 28% YTD and more than 60% from its July 2025 peak, trading near $1.33.
• The CLARITY Act must clear the Senate committee by the end of April or it is likely dead for 2026.
• Institutional flows are stalling with XRP ETF weekly net outflows exceeding $28 million.

XRP is trading near $1.33 today April 1, 2026. It has already dropped 28% in the first three months of 2026 and sits more than 60% below its July 2025 high of $3.65. To many, it now looks like a bargain. But history tells a different story.

Before the 2024 election hype, XRP was trading comfortably below $1. Without a strong catalyst to reverse the current downtrend, a return to sub-$1 levels is a more realistic outcome than a fast recovery.

The token may seem on the lower price today, but it can easily go even lower.

Where the decline came from

XRP’s slide is not happening alone. Bitcoin is down roughly 24% year-to-date, and the broader crypto market is feeling heavy pressure from multiple sides at once. Recession fears fueled by tariffs and geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices driving inflation concerns higher. To add to that, the Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% with no cuts in sight. 

🚨 BREAKING: The Federal Reserve has left interest rates UNCHANGED, despite President Trump demanding rates be LOWERED for the American people

Fed funds rate remains at 3.75%

Chairman Jerome Powell is on his way out in the coming months, set to be replaced with Trump's pick… pic.twitter.com/6Uja33jugi

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) March 18, 2026

Risk assets like crypto struggle in this environment. XRP faces an extra layer of risk that Bitcoin doesn’t. Its sharp gains in late 2024 and 2025 were largely built on regulatory optimism, the strong expectation of fast legislative reform under a crypto-friendly administration. That reform has yet to materialize.

The CLARITY Act as the only catalyst left

The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act passed the House 294-134 but has been stuck in the Senate since January over a single unresolved dispute. The dispute is on whether crypto platforms can offer yield on stablecoin balances. 

Banks argue the arrangement competes with traditional savings accounts. However, Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks reached a basic agreement on the language in late March 2026, with a Banking Committee markup now targeting mid-April 2026. 

if CLARITY doesn't pass committee by end of april, odds of passage in 2026 become extremely low. this needs to hit the senate floor by early may… floor time is running out and odds diminish every day that passes

the framing right now is that the dispute over stablecoins… pic.twitter.com/tEejEsmUi9

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) March 14, 2026

Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn has warned the bill must clear committee by end of April or it is effectively dead for 2026, midterm election campaigning takes over and no controversial votes happen. Polymarket odds of passage have dropped from 72% to 54% since early March, 2026.

For XRP, the importance of this legislation cannot be overstated. For one, it will provide a federal regulatory framework that institutions have been waiting for. This includes formally classifying XRP as a commodity and removing any lingering legal uncertainty. Without it, however, institutional adoption and meaningful ETF inflows would remain limited.

Standard Chartered has already cut its 2026 XRP target from $8 to $2.80, and that revised figure assumes delays and rough macro conditions, not failure. If the bill fails entirely, XRP loses its primary institutional catalyst and reverts to trading on broader crypto market sentiment alone.

What the institutional data shows

The institutional picture is mixed. Goldman Sachs holds $153.8 million in XRP ETF products, a meaningful position. However, weekly net outflows have recently exceeded $28 million, and inflows have stalled.

Many institutions are waiting for the CLARITY Act to turn XRP’s regulatory status into permanent law before increasing exposure. While some large players continue to accumulate quietly, the broader institutional community remains in a holding pattern.

🚨 NEW: GOLDMAN SACHS JUST DISCLOSED THEY HOLD $153 MILLION WORTH OF XRP. pic.twitter.com/en0N2n08HO

— MSB Intel (@MSBIntel) February 10, 2026

Crucially, institutions tend to use Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin rather than XRP itself for payment transactions. Ripple’s business growth does not automatically translate into XRP price appreciation. The token’s value proposition depends on institutional demand for XRP specifically, and that demand is conditional on legislative clarity that does not yet exist.

The case for patience over buying

XRP below $1.50 feels cheap compared to six months ago. But the more relevant comparison is pre-2024 election levels, when it traded comfortably under $1.

The political momentum that drove it above $3 has stalled and the macro environment remains hostile. In this context, waiting for clearer confirmation rather than buying into weakness is the more prudent approach for most investors.