Points of Focus

• XRP at $1.35 with $50.8B unrealized losses across 36.8B tokens, highlighting heavy dollar-denominated pressure.
• Realized losses hit a 39-month high, while supply in loss is spiking – a pattern seen near past cycle bottoms.
• $1.30 support keeps getting tested, RSI near 30, and OI down 70% to $203M, pointing to a major leverage flush. 

XRP is trading around $1.35 (at the time of writing), back to levels last seen in mid-2024. That’s about 63% drop from its July 2025 all-time high of $3.65, and it’s happening against a backdrop of on-chain data that tells the more uncomfortable part of the story.

At current levels, ~36.8B XRPs are in loss. Denominated in USD, the unrealized loss is now $50.8B.
📉 https://t.co/oemb6IKnkt https://t.co/yTsIXWPFV4 pic.twitter.com/OJtVLCSggL

— glassnode (@glassnode) March 8, 2026

According to Glassnode data shared on X, roughly 36.8 billion XRP tokens are currently underwater. The aggregate unrealized loss denominated in USD sits at $50.8 billion. How easily that can be reversed remains to be seen.

What the charts show

The Glassnode “Total Supply in Loss” chart makes the scale of the current drawdown visible in context. During the 2021 cycle peak, supply in loss spiked above 40 billion XRP as late buyers got caught at the top, then collapsed as price recovered. The same pattern played out in 2022. What’s different now is the sheer USD denomination of those losses. XRP was trading at much lower prices during prior loss spikes. At $1.35, even modest XRP holdings represent significant dollar-denominated pain.

Realized losses recently hit their highest level in 39 months, a spike last seen in 2022. Historically, these spikes have tended to cluster near local bottoms, as weaker holders exit and the remaining supply concentrates in more committed hands. That’s where the pattern tends to show up and in no way guarantees a reversal.

The support level that keeps getting tested

The $1.30 level marks the lower boundary of recent consolidation. Price has repeatedly tested this range, and while rebounds have followed each time, repeated touches tend to weaken demand. That’s the core technical risk right now. Each retest absorbs some of the buyer interest defending it, as posited by the Demand Zone Exhaustion theory of technical trading. A daily close below $1.30 would likely accelerate selling in what’s already a thin liquidity environment.

"The Integration play is gonna be XRP" pic.twitter.com/3oYePQitX5

— Digital Asset Investor (@digitalassetbuy) March 4, 2026

XRP’s RSI dropped near 30 before bouncing to 42, technically indicating a bearish trend or short term momentum, but hasn’t crossed into extreme oversold territory. The 20-day moving average and mid-Bollinger Band near $1.42 remain the first meaningful resistance above current price. Until XRP reclaims that level, sellers retain short-term control.

XRP open interest drops 70% as $1.30 support faces pressure

Total XRP open interest across exchanges fell from $660 million in October 2025 to $203 million by early March 2026, a 70% decline in five months, with Binance leading the drop. 

As covered in AlphaWire’s earlier analysis, the last time Binance XRP open interest fell to comparable levels was April 2025, when price subsequently bottomed near $1.80 before rallying. The setup is similar, but the price level isn’t and $1.35 is meaningfully lower than where that prior recovery started.

The $50.8 billion in unrealized losses won’t disappear at $1.30. It just stops growing, if the level holds.