Points of Focus

• XRP has broken below $1.40 and the 100-hourly SMA, forming a bearish trend line with resistance at $1.4120.
• Hourly MACD is accelerating in bearish territory with RSI below 50, and with risk of a close below $1.3750 increasing downside pressure.
• The selloff arrives five days before the SEC’s March 27 spot XRP ETF approval decision.

XRP has slipped below $1.40, extending the decline from the $1.4820 swing high to a low of $1.3713. The token is now trading below both the $1.40 level and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. That combination shifts the short-term structure from consolidation to confirmed breakdown.

The move mirrors weakness across the broader crypto market. Bitcoin and Ethereum are both pulling back simultaneously. But XRP’s move is more technically significant given the levels now in play and the proximity of a key catalyst.

The technical structure

The first ceiling any recovery must clear is $1.4120. A bearish trend line has formed there on the hourly chart. Above that, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the $1.4820 to $1.3713 move sits at $1.4250. A sustained close above that level would neutralize the current bearish structure. 

Beyond $1.4250, the next targets are $1.44 then $1.4560 and potentially back toward the swing high. The hourly MACD is gaining pace in the bearish zone as RSI has dropped below 50. Essentially, that places the momentum with the sellers.

On the downside, $1.38 is the first support floor. A close below $1.3750 opens $1.3620 then $1.35. Below that sits $1.3350, a level that would represent a full retracement of XRP’s post-ETF launch gains.

An untimely arrival

The technical weakness arrives five days before the SEC’s scheduled March 27 announcement on Grayscale’s spot XRP ETF approval. Its approval would be significant because Grayscale operates the largest crypto ETF suite in the US and its products typically attract the deepest institutional inflows. 

The institutional buying indicator tracked by CryptoQuant has been in negative territory. Glassnode’s exchange net position data confirms XRP holders have maintained a net-selling stance for over 30 days.

Consequently, investors who bought the regulatory tailwind in December and January are reducing exposure ahead of the decision. A spot ETF approval with the price at $1.37 creates a different entry point than $1.60, where profit-taking absorbed the last major regulatory catalyst. A denial at current levels removes the primary near-term catalyst entirely and puts the $1.35 structural support zone directly in focus.

The next four trading days will determine whether this is positioning ahead of the decision or the start of a broader breakdown.