Points of Focus

• Gemini secures a CFTC license to launch U.S. prediction markets after a five-year process.
• The exchange enters a fast-growing sector led by Polymarket, Kalshi, and other major platforms.
• The approval sets up Gemini’s broader plan to expand U.S. derivatives and build a multi-product app.

Gemini has received a designated contract market license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, clearing the path for the exchange to offer prediction markets to U.S. users. The approval covers its affiliate, Gemini Titan, and allows event contracts to go live on the web platform in the coming weeks.

We’ve just received a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the @CFTC which will allow Gemini to begin offering prediction markets to U.S. customers.

— Gemini (@Gemini) December 10, 2025

Mobile access will follow. The decision comes during a difficult stretch for the newly public exchange, whose stock has dropped sharply since its September debut. News of the license pushed shares higher in after-hours trading as investors reacted to the broader revenue potential tied to event-based products.

Gemini gains entry into a growing prediction market sector

Prediction markets are gaining momentum as traders look for faster signals around political outcomes, policy decisions, and major sports events. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi recorded their highest monthly volumes in November 2025, driven by election-related activity and economic uncertainty.

Kalshi also closed a major funding round this month that lifted its valuation above the $10 billion mark. Activity across the sector suggests rising interest from both retail and professional users.

Growth is not limited to crypto-native firms. Fanatics entered the space last week with sports-focused contracts. Trust Wallet rolled out prediction features earlier this month, adding a new product to its app. Robinhood and Susquehanna took over LedgerX in November, giving them direct access to event-driven trading.

Coinbase has also signaled interest by registering a domain linked to prediction activity. Together, these moves show how quickly the sector is expanding. Analysts see 2026 as a key year for the vertical as more firms pursue regulated pathways and new contract categories seek approval.

For Gemini, the license creates an opening to compete with platforms that already dominate the space. The company sees prediction markets as a core part of its roadmap for the U.S.

Regulators weigh how event contracts should be supervised

Supporters say prediction markets offer a clear gauge of expectations compared to surveys or standard research models. Critics argue the products mirror gambling and raise questions about compliance with state rules.

This divide has pushed firms to shape their offerings around simple, event-based outcomes. Gemini’s approval signals that the CFTC is open to new entrants as long as they follow strict contract and reporting standards.

The license also gives Gemini room to expand its U.S. derivatives line. The company plans to list crypto futures, options, and perpetuals after the prediction products launch.

Gemini positions its license as a step toward a broader app strategy

The exchange views the license as part of its plan to build a multi-product app with spot trading, derivatives, and event contracts in one place. Executives outlined this approach during the company’s first earnings call, where they described prediction markets as an early stage of a larger expansion push.

As competition intensifies and volumes climb, prediction markets may shift from a niche category to a central part of the U.S. trading ecosystem. Many analysts expect 2026 to be the year this change becomes clear.