Points of Focus  

• Portugal’s SRIJ orders Polymarket shutdown and blocking for unlicensed political betting.  
• €103M+ wagered on 2026 presidential markets, with suspicious pre-result surges.  
• Users face access loss, with fund recovery uncertain under unlicensed status.

Portugal’s Gaming Regulation and Inspection Service (SRIJ) ordered prediction market platform Polymarket to cease operations and face network-level blocking in the country on January 19, 2026, after heavy election-related betting violated national gambling laws prohibiting wagers on political events.

Portugal and Hungary have both banned Polymarket, accusing the company of illegal gambling activity.

— More Perfect Union (@MorePerfectUS) January 20, 2026

Insider activity, or just pure luck?

The regulator issued a cease-and-desist notice giving Polymarket 48 hours to halt activity, stating: “The website is not authorized to offer betting in Portugal, and under national law, betting on political events or happenings, whether national or international, is not permitted.” SRIJ confirmed in a statement released on Portuguese media outlet, Rádio Renascença, that it became aware of the platform “very recently” and considers its operations illegal. The site remained active in Portugal as of January 21, 2026, with blocking now expected via ISP notifications.

The crackdown follows a massive surge in Polymarket activity tied to Portugal’s 2026 presidential election. Over €103 million (~$110 million) was wagered across markets, including €4 million+ in the hours before official results were announced. Probabilities shifted dramatically: António José Seguro’s odds jumped from 68% to 93% between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. on election day, while rivals like André Ventura and João Cotrim de Figueiredo collapsed, raising questions about potential insider trading or early access to exit polls, which circulated unofficially before public release.

Regulators are taking aim at crypto prediction markets and Portugal just stepped into the spotlight.

Portuguese authorities have ordered the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket to cease operations within 48 hours, citing national law that bans betting on political events… pic.twitter.com/ay94YA2xfI

— AndreWGMI (@AndreWGMI) January 20, 2026

What the Polymarket ban means for users in Portugal

For users in Portugal, the order means immediate access disruption and uncertain fund recovery, SRIJ regulates only licensed operators and lacks direct authority to force refunds from unlicensed platforms. The move is yet another case of growing global regulatory pressure on prediction markets, especially those tied to elections, as jurisdictions like the U.S. and EU scrutinize similar platforms for gambling compliance and potential market manipulation.

Jurisdictions view it as unlicensed gambling with insider-trading risks, especially when volumes spike suspiciously before results. For users, the shutdown means immediate loss of access and uncertain fund recovery, SRIJ can block but not force refunds from offshore platforms. If more countries follow, platforms may need local licensing or geo-fencing, limiting retail participation. Continued regulatory pressure is to be expected unless platforms adapt with compliance measures.

Polymarket, valued at $9 billion and built on blockchain for USDC-based prediction markets, allows users to buy/sell “yes/no” shares on real-world outcomes. In the United States, prediction markets recently hit $700 million in record volume but troubles continue to mount. While profitable trades are subject to 28% tax in Portugal, the platform operates without local licensing, making it illegal under SRIJ rules.