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Bitcoin traded around the low-$90,000 mark into the first week of 2026, lagging a broader risk-on tape that has pushed US equities and bullion toward fresh records.
The contrast has sharpened in early January: the S&P 500 closed at 6,858.47 on January 2, extending a run that left US benchmarks near record territory.
Meanwhile, spot gold jumped to around $4,406/oz on January 5 amid a new burst of safe-haven demand tied to Venezuela’s political shock, keeping bullion close to recent highs after a blockbuster 2025.
Bitcoin, by comparison, has remained stubbornly rangebound – not collapsing, but failing to build momentum toward the psychologically important $100,000 level.
Historically, bitcoin has reacted to major geopolitical and macro shocks. For example, tumbling alongside broader risk assets during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, even as some investors sought crypto as a hedge, and while the current US action in Venezuela has so far produced little dramatic crypto selloff or surge.It underscores how global uncertainty can put Bitcoin’s risk-asset behavior to the test.
Derivatives traders point to a mechanical explanation: crowded options positioning can create a “gamma pin,” where dealer hedging dampens volatility and pulls price back toward a range.
🚨 SP500 IS AT ATH. GOLD IS AT ATH, BUT BTC IS STILL STUCK. HERE’S WHY
I don’t understand why nobody is talking about this.
It’s Jan 4, 2026 and BTC is still stuck around $91k while everything else looks unstoppable.
That’s NOT because demand is gone.
BTC is trapped in a… pic.twitter.com/R5aNlXu12j
— Wimar.X (@DefiWimar) January 4, 2026
The setup is visible in how open interest clusters around key strikes on major venues like Deribit, with large positioning frequently cited around $85,000 (puts) and $100,000 (calls).
In simplified terms, when spot drifts lower toward heavy put strikes, hedging flows can lean supportive; when spot grinds higher toward heavy call strikes, hedging can lean suppressive, a push-pull that “buys dips and sells rips,” keeping spot stuck even if longer-term buyers are accumulating.
That dynamic is amplified when liquidity is thinner, such as around holidays, and when large allocators tend to use Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP), Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP), or over-the-counter (OTC) execution methods.
These approaches spread trades over time or off-exchange to reduce market impact, making underlying demand less visible in day-to-day price action.
The setup is not permanent, however, because it has a defined expiry. Around January 16, 2026, roughly 8% of outstanding gamma exposure is set to roll off, offering initial relief, with a larger inflection point expected on January 30, 2026, when about 43% of total gamma expires, and the pinning effect can weaken more meaningfully.
The pin can weaken when options exposure rolls off and dealers no longer need to hedge as aggressively around the same strikes. Traders are closely watching January expiries after a late-December reset that underscored the options market’s growing dominance in crypto price action.
The focus is especially intense around January 30, 2026, when a large monthly batch of contracts expires, including high-profile positioning at the $100,000 strike that has drawn attention as a potential “call wall.”
If that concentrated exposure clears and spot demand persists, traders say Bitcoin could become more responsive to real flows. Until then, the market may continue to behave less like a pure sentiment gauge and more like a price being managed by hedging mechanics around $85,000–$100,000.
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