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Points of Focus
- Polymarket trader swisstony made about $21 million from roughly 23,500 positions entered at probabilities of 10% or less.
- The positions won 11% of the time and produced a reported 343.14% return on capital deployed in that probability range.
- Trades entered above 90% probability settled successfully 94.71% of the time and accumulated $15.91 million in losses.
Polymarket’s top trader earned the bulk of his profit from positions priced at a 10% probability or less, according to trading data compiled by PolyBeats.
The account, known as swisstony, generated about $21 million from roughly 23,500 positions in the 0% to 10% probability range. Only 11% ultimately won. The group of trades produced a reported 343.14% return on capital deployed.
Swisstony currently leads Polymarket’s all-time profit leaderboard with about $23.63 million in cumulative profit. His Polymarket profile shows more than 203,000 predictions since he joined the platform in July 2025, along with a largest individual win of about $1.2 million.
Long shots generated nearly 89% of his profit
Positions priced at 10% or less accounted for close to 89% of the $23.6 million profit reported for the account. The economics of prediction-market contracts help explain how such a low hit rate can still produce large gains.
Each winning Polymarket share settles at $1. A position bought for five cents therefore carries a potential gross payout equal to 20 times its entry price. Across tens of thousands of trades, a relatively small number of successful long shots can generate substantial gains.
Sports made up much of swisstony’s activity during a period of heavy prediction-market trading around the World Cup. PolyBeats found that about 65% of the markets traded by the account were football-related, producing approximately $15.8 million in cumulative profit.
The 2026 World Cup alone contributed about $8.9 million, according to the analysis. Swisstony traded across all 104 matches during the tournament.
Polymarket has also been expanding its sports trading products. Its US platform processed about $7.4 million across more than 16,000 parlay trades during an August beta, adding another format for sports-focused activity.
High-probability positions lost $15.9M
Positions entered between 90% and 100% settled successfully 94.71% of the time, according to PolyBeats, while accumulating $15.91 million in losses and producing a cost-weighted return of negative 7.19%.
A contract purchased at 95 cents earns five cents per share when it settles at $1. An incorrect position can lose nearly the full 95-cent entry price, allowing several large misses to erase gains from a much longer run of successful trades.
The contrast across the two probability bands is stark: swisstony’s cheapest positions generated the bulk of his profits despite a low hit rate, while trades priced near $1 proved far less forgiving when they failed.
PolyBeats reported that swisstony had stopped opening new positions for five days as of Sept. 2 and had been withdrawing funds during the previous week. Recent wallet activity was largely limited to settlements and claims on existing positions. His Polymarket profile currently carries a short sign-off: “So long, and thanks for all the fish.”
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