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Points of Focus
- Proposed jury instructions for the Lockerbie bombing trial explicitly warn jurors against using prediction and betting markets tied to the case.
- The instructions reference platforms where users can wager on court outcomes, bringing services such as Kalshi and Polymarket into a new courtroom integrity debate.
- The unusual restriction highlights how prediction markets are creating fresh challenges around jury impartiality, insider information and legal-event contracts.
Prediction markets have reached one of the most closely watched terrorism trials in recent history, with proposed jury instructions for the upcoming Lockerbie bombing case warning jurors not to check or participate in markets betting on the trial’s outcome.
Federal prosecutors and court-appointed lawyers for Abu Agila Mohammad Masud, who US authorities accuse of constructing the bomb that destroyed Pan Am Flight 103 in 1988, jointly filed the proposed instructions last week.
The draft specifically addresses online betting and prediction platforms where contracts can be traded on court cases and verdicts.
Jurors would be told not to visit, consult or participate in any prediction market related to the case before or during deliberations. The restriction would also cover checking odds or forecasts about the verdict or any other aspect of the proceeding.
The final instructions remain subject to approval by US District Judge Dabney Friedrich.
Prediction markets create a new Jury integrity problem
Prediction markets allow traders to take positions on real-world outcomes ranging from elections and economic data to sports and legal events.
That creates an unusual problem for courts.
A juror checking the market-implied probability of a conviction could be exposed to outside views about the case, potentially influencing deliberations. Participation presents an even greater concern because a juror would possess information unavailable to ordinary traders.
The Lockerbie proposal therefore extends traditional restrictions on jurors consuming outside news or conducting independent research into a new category: real-time markets assigning financial value to possible courtroom outcomes.
Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have grown rapidly as event-contract trading moves further into the mainstream, increasing the likelihood that courts will encounter similar questions in future high-profile cases.
Lockerbie trial draws intense public attention
The trial concerns the Dec. 21, 1988 bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, which killed 270 people, including all 259 passengers and crew and 11 people on the ground.
Masud, now in his mid-70s, is accused by US authorities of building the explosive device. He has contested aspects of the government’s case, including an alleged confession that his lawyers say was made under duress.
Jury selection is tentatively scheduled to begin on Aug. 25, although the timetable could change.
Finding impartial jurors is already expected to be difficult because of decades of media coverage, an earlier Lockerbie prosecution and a recent Netflix dramatization of the disaster.
Prediction markets face another scrutiny point
The proposed ban adds courtroom integrity to a growing list of issues surrounding prediction markets.
US regulators and courts are already wrestling with whether certain event contracts should be treated as federally regulated derivatives or gambling products subject to state laws. Questions around insider information have also intensified as markets expand into politics, corporate events and other outcomes where some participants may possess privileged information.
The Lockerbie case introduces another concern: what happens when people responsible for determining an outcome can also see, or potentially trade, a market betting on that very decision?
For prediction markets, that question could become increasingly difficult to avoid as event contracts expand into more areas of public life.
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