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Points of Focus
- The American Gaming Association estimates users aged 18-20 have generated more than $5.1 billion in sports-event trading volume on Kalshi.
- The estimate uses an earlier Kalshi disclosure that 4% of its trading volume came from users in that age group.
- Kalshi accepts users from age 18, while the minimum age for regulated sports betting is 21 across most US jurisdictions.
Users aged 18-20 may have generated more than $5.1 billion in sports-event trading volume on Kalshi, according to an estimate from the American Gaming Association (AGA).
The casino industry trade group’s Teen-Twenty Sports Betting Tracker put the total above $5.132 billion as of Sept. 1. The AGA derives the figure from an earlier Kalshi disclosure that 4% of its trading volume came from users aged 18-20. The group applies that share to Kalshi’s sports-event activity to estimate how much volume the age group generates.
Kalshi’s account requirements allow users to open accounts from age 18, subject to identity verification. The age threshold gives 18-to-20-year-olds access to sports-event contracts even in many states where regulated sportsbooks require customers to be 21.
The issue has gained visibility as prediction markets expand in sports. A recent study found that three of the five major US professional sports leagues now have prediction-market partners.
Age gap joins wider prediction-market fight
The AGA represents casino and sportsbook operators and has repeatedly pushed for sports prediction markets to face state gambling rules. Its $5.1-billion figure reflects the group’s own methodology and should be read in that context.
Kalshi describes its products as event contracts and operates as a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-designated contract market. The exchange has argued in legal disputes that its contracts fall under federal commodities regulation.
State governments and gaming interests have challenged that framework as sports contracts have grown. The disputes cover licensing, taxes, consumer protections, and the authority states have over products tied to sporting events.
Those differences can produce large gaps in how the same market is treated. North Carolina recently approved a 6% tax on prediction-market operators’ net trading-fee revenue beginning in 2027, while licensed sportsbooks face a 23% tax on gross wagering revenue.
The market’s rapid expansion has also pushed compliance questions into the spotlight. Kalshi recently suspended a political candidate after she traded on her own race, one of several cases drawing attention to the rules governing federally regulated event markets.
For the AGA, access for 18-to-20-year-olds has become another focus of that regulatory debate. The group argues that sports contracts available to users below the prevailing sportsbook age should face comparable safeguards.
The $5.132-billion figure is the AGA’s own reconstruction of Kalshi’s activity, built from the platform’s earlier 4% age-share disclosure and subsequent sports volume. Kalshi does not publish a comparable breakdown showing how much 18-to-20-year-olds traded in sports markets.
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