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Points of Focus
- Crypto.com and PYMNTS will launch more than 20 prediction contracts tied to measured AI adoption starting in September.
- The first markets will cover consumer use, enterprise deployment, workforce changes, financial services, retail, and healthcare.
- Settlement data will draw on recurring surveys of 4,000 US adults and 500 enterprises, alongside public-company disclosures.
Crypto.com is adding AI to its prediction-market lineup with a new series of contracts tracking how consumers and businesses adopt the technology.
The company announced an exclusive two-year partnership with PYMNTS on Aug. 31. More than 20 contracts are scheduled to begin trading in September through OG Prediction Markets, with the first markets rolling out in phases. 25 additional contracts are expected each quarter.
The expansion comes as prediction-market platforms continue moving into new categories and formats. Non-sports activity across Kalshi and Polymarket jumped 144% in August, while Gemini recently added US National Football League game and quarter totals to its sports offering.
Surveys and company filings will settle AI markets
PYMNTS Intelligence will supply the measurements used to settle the contracts. Its framework has tracked AI adoption across consumers, enterprises, and public companies for nearly 30 months, providing historical data before trading begins.
Consumer data comes from a nationally representative monthly survey of 4,000 US adults balanced across 180 census quotas. Researchers track AI use across work, education, healthcare, commerce, and everyday life.
A separate quarterly study covers 500 US enterprises and executives responsible for AI strategy and investment. It measures areas such as production agents, workflow automation, software replacement, and realized productivity gains.
Corporate disclosures make up another part of the settlement framework. PYMNTS analyzes SEC filings, earnings materials, and other public disclosures for changes in AI investment, revenue, productivity, workforce effects, and capital allocation.
Initial contracts will span consumer behavior, enterprise deployment, workforce transformation, financial services, retail, and healthcare, with monthly or quarterly settlement schedules depending on the underlying data set. The markets will give traders recurring data releases around which to price changes in AI adoption.
Prediction platforms have increasingly experimented with markets tied to less conventional real-world events, from Google Maps naming changes to legal outcomes.
Crypto.com expands its prediction-market catalog
North American Derivatives Exchange, an affiliate of Crypto.com, conducts business under the OG Prediction Markets and Crypto.com Derivatives North America brands. The company is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a designated contract market and derivatives clearing organization, while OG Prediction Markets distributes contracts through Crypto.com’s introducing broker and other intermediaries.
US prediction-market operators have also been widening distribution and experimenting with more complex products. Polymarket US recently tested $7.4 million in parlay activity, while sports event contracts are facing increased legal scrutiny. A recent Ninth Circuit ruling allowed Nevada to regulate Kalshi’s sports contracts.
Trading in the AI contracts is scheduled to begin in September. Crypto.com said the methodology, contract specifications, and settlement calendar have already been published ahead of the rollout.
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