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Polymarket’s reported trading activity may be far higher than actual onchain activity. A researcher at Paradigm says many dashboards are double-counting trades because Polymarket’s smart contracts emit redundant onchain events. This raises concerns about the accuracy of headline metrics used by investors, data providers and institutions tracking the platform’s growth.
According to Storm, nearly all major dashboards have been counting the same trade twice. Polymarket’s system emits multiple “OrderFilled” events for a single transaction. One event is emitted for the maker with an existing order. Another is emitted for the taker who executes the trade.
found a pretty major data bug
it turns out almost every major dashboard has been double-counting Polymarket volume (not related to wash trading)
this is because Polymarket's onchain data contains redundant representations of each trade. receipts ⬇️⬇️ pic.twitter.com/rQJEzs2Rfl
— storm (@notnotstorm) December 8, 2025
These two entries describe the same action from different perspectives. Many dashboards have been combining them as if they were separate trades. Paradigm says this inflates both notional volume and cashflow volume, the two metrics most often used in prediction market reporting.
Storm said Polymarket’s data structure is “notoriously confusing” for analysts because it has several interacting layers. Some trades are simple swaps while others involve “splits” and “merges,” where users exchange cash for opposing positions. The smart contracts emit additional events to track these actions, and standard block explorers do not clearly distinguish them.
polymarket’s data has been notoriously confusing for crypto data analysts
the data has too many layers of interacting complexity to untangle using just a block explorerhttps://t.co/KKTOlesRt7
— storm (@notnotstorm) December 8, 2025
The researcher warned that the data is too complex to parse through a block explorer alone. This complexity has led to widespread adoption of flawed accounting methods across analytics platforms that rely on event logs without additional filtering.
Polymarket has been viewed as a rare success during a volatile period for spot and derivatives markets. It recently reached a valuation of 9 billion dollars according to reports citing figures from the Intercontinental Exchange. Those valuations referenced headline volume numbers that may now be in question.
The platform has also been preparing for a US launch. Earlier reports noted plans for a valuation near 10 billion dollars, while further fundraising discussions were said to target 12 to 15 billion dollars. If Paradigm’s findings are accurate, some of the volume-based assumptions behind these valuations may need adjustment.
Dune Analytics, for example, reported a monthly record of 3.7 billion dollars in trading volume for November. Paradigm suggests this could be double the actual figure if dashboards counted redundant events. The researcher named DefiLlama, Allium, Blockworks, and many Dune dashboards as examples of platforms affected by the error.
Storm said the issue shows why prediction markets need consistent and transparent reporting standards. As the sector grows, reliable data becomes more important for traders, institutions and regulators. Many firms now view prediction markets as emerging financial tools and want accurate metrics before making decisions.
Polymarket has yet to publicly comment on Paradigm’s findings. The actual scale of over-counting may vary depending on how each dashboard filters or aggregates on-chain events.
The discovery highlights the gap between raw blockchain events and the interpreted data that powers dashboards, valuations and industry reports. As prediction markets expand, pressure will increase for clearer standards and tools that handle onchain complexity without inflating real activity.
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