Points of Focus:

• Bitcoin’s 30% drop since October fits the pattern of past bull-market pullbacks.
• The firm sees the four-year cycle fading and new highs likely in 2026.
• Rate cuts, crypto legislation, and rising ETP adoption could fuel the next rally.

Bitcoin investors have grown accustomed to wild swings, and 2025 has been no exception. After reaching multi-month highs earlier this year, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has since faced a roughly 30% pullback, its ninth meaningful drawdown of the current bull market.

But according to a new Grayscale Research titled November 2025: What It Takes to HODL, this correction is neither unusual nor alarming. The firm argues that the drawdown is “in line with the historical average,” and that Bitcoin remains far from entering a deep, multi-year bear market. 

In fact, Grayscale expects the world’s leading digital asset to potentially make new highs in 2026, even as many investors brace for a repeat of the so-called “four-year cycle.”

A familiar ride for long-term holders

Since its inception, Bitcoin has rewarded patience. Over the past three to five years, the asset has produced annualized returns between 35% and 75%, but only for those willing to stomach steep drawdowns. Grayscale notes that Bitcoin typically experiences at least three 10% declines each year, a level of volatility that has long been part of its DNA.

The latest slide, which began in early October and deepened through November, saw prices fall 32% (under $90k) from peak to trough, nearly identical to Bitcoin’s historical average pullback of around 30%. Such corrections, the firm explains, often act as “pressure valves” in ongoing bull markets, shaking out leveraged traders before longer-term uptrends resume.

Fading the four-year cycle

Historically, Bitcoin’s halving schedule, which cuts the block subsidy every four years, has appeared to dictate a predictable rhythm: three years of gains followed by a sharp, prolonged downturn. Grayscale, however, believes that model no longer applies.

$BTC pre-halving sequence:
1 Red: Euphoria — blow-off to channel top
2 Green: Dead-cat bounce on the midline
3 Neon-green: Cycle bottom at the channel floor

This time, BTC has rejected the midline three times while holding higher lows on the 0.382.

Euphoria comes first at… pic.twitter.com/JCF4l5lAuM

— Gert van Lagen (@GertvanLagen) December 1, 2025

“Bitcoin supply follows a four-year cycle,” the report said, “but prices no longer need to.”

Grayscale analysts point to several structural shifts: new capital is entering through exchange-traded products (ETPs) and corporate treasuries rather than retail exchanges, and institutional liquidity now dominates daily trading volumes. These changes, combined with a more mature investor base, could mean Bitcoin’s price action decouples from its traditional halving-linked boom-bust pattern.

Macro winds and market structure

The near-term picture, Grayscale says, is mixed. Some indicators, such as a spike in put-option demand and historically high hedging activity, suggest that downside risk may already be well-priced in. Yet other data, like declining futures open interest and weak ETP inflows of $464 million earlier in November, hint that market sentiment remains cautious.

Still, macro catalysts may soon tilt the balance. Grayscale points to potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in December and continued bipartisan progress on U.S. crypto legislation as factors that could boost confidence into year-end. Lower real rates, in particular, tend to weaken the U.S. dollar and strengthen alternative assets such as gold and, increasingly, Bitcoin.

Beyond Bitcoin: Privacy and new ETPs

While Bitcoin has been consolidating, privacy-focused cryptocurrencies quietly outperformed in November. Grayscale’s Currencies Crypto Sector Index showed gains for Monero (+30%), Decred (+40%), and Zcash (+8%), reflecting renewed interest in on-chain privacy. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin’s unveiling of a new privacy framework, Kohaku, at Devcon also helped energize the sector.

Meanwhile, the crypto ETP landscape continues to expand. Following the SEC’s approval of new listing standards in September, issuers launched the first XRP and Dogecoin ETPs in November. According to Bloomberg data cited by Grayscale, there are now 124 U.S.-listed crypto ETPs managing a combined $145 billion, a sign of growing mainstream access to digital assets.

“Eventually, fundamentals and valuations will converge,” Grayscale wrote. “The most meaningful gains will come not from timing the next pullback, but from HODL-ing for the long term.”

With regulatory clarity improving, institutional adoption deepening, and the halving narrative fading, Bitcoin’s next chapter may look less like a replay, and more like a redefinition, of its storied four-year rhythm.