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Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies that surged during the 2025 rally are entering their toughest month yet. These firms that once traded at three to ten times their modified net asset value (mNAV) have dropped back toward parity as crypto markets weakened. That reset is exposing how reliant many treasuries were on rising token prices rather than consistent operating income.
Pressure has increased after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points on December 10, 2025, lowering the federal funds target range to 3.50% to 3.75%. It was the Fed’s third cut this year, delivered amid disagreements inside the committee about inflation and economic momentum.
Lower interest rates tend to pull down yields on short-term U.S. Treasuries, the same instruments many DATs use through tokenized T-bill strategies. The cut, therefore, tightens an already difficult yield environment and adds another source of stress to mNAV calculations.
Our Thoughts on DATs aka Bitcoin Treasury Companies, and the validity of the concepthttps://t.co/5NSyjrTDh5
— James Butterfill (@jbutterfill) December 3, 2025
In its December 3 research blog post, CoinShares said the DAT sector is at a pivotal point, with several companies trading at or below 1× mNAV. James Butterfill, the firm’s Head of Research, informed in the post that this leaves treasuries with far smaller cushions if digital-asset prices fall. A sharp decline, he said, could force some companies to sell assets to meet obligations, raising the risk of a feedback loop in thin liquidity conditions.
CoinShares argues that the downturn has exposed familiar structural issues: concentrated holdings, low operating revenue, and overreliance on token appreciation to support valuations. These weaknesses were masked in mid-2025, when some DATs traded at large premiums despite limited underlying cash flow. By late November, several had returned to, or slipped below, the value of their balance-sheet assets.
Butterfill noted that two outcomes look possible in December: a disorderly unwind for firms without liquidity buffers, or stabilization if markets improve and outflows slow.
CoinShares expects tokenized government debt to play a larger role in 2026 as institutions seek regulated, transparent yield instruments on public networks.
But fed cuts and lower policy rates reduce income from these assets. For DATs built around tokenized T-bill wrappers, the shift means lower returns at a moment when valuations and liquidity are already under pressure. Research from Galaxy Digital shows that on-chain yields have been trending toward traditional Treasury levels throughout 2025, further limiting upside for treasury managers.
To adapt, some DATs are testing blended models that mix tokenized Treasuries with layer-2 lending markets and stablecoin liquidity pools. These designs aim to reduce NAV volatility by diversifying yield sources instead of depending on a single rate environment.
Our 2026 Outlook is here. Digital assets enter the new year with shifting market structure, deeper institutional flows and a macro backdrop that finally matters again.
What’s inside:
– Macro conditions and the path for rates
– @Bitcoin’s supply transition post-ETF
– The state of… pic.twitter.com/uo96plUNqA— CoinShares (@CoinSharesCo) December 8, 2025
CoinShares’ 2026 outlook describes digital-asset markets shifting from speculation toward integration, with real-world assets and regulated yield instruments playing a larger role.
For DATs, survival now depends on liquidity discipline, diversified income, and balance sheets designed to handle both falling crypto prices and lower Treasury yields.
The December rate cut does not doom the model; however, it makes the path forward narrower, and the stress test sharper, particularly for treasuries that entered winter with little room to absorb further shocks.
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