Points of Focus

• Galaxy Research lowered its estimated odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 from 60% to 50%.
• Alex Thorn said the downgrade reflects Senate scheduling constraints rather than concerns about the bill itself.
• The legislation still lacks a Senate floor date as lawmakers face competing priorities before the August recess.

Galaxy Research’s Alex Thorn  has lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 after warning that the Senate’s legislative calendar is leaving little time to advance the crypto market structure bill before the August recess.

In a research note published on June 26, 2026, Thorn reduced the firm’s probability estimate from 60% to 50%, arguing that a shrinking Senate calendar and mounting competition for floor time have reduced the bill’s chances of reaching the Senate floor before the August recess. The change marks Galaxy’s second downward revision this month after it cut its estimate from 75% to 60% in early June.

i'm again reducing my odds of CLARITY act passage in 2026, mostly due to the shortening calendar and growing competition for floor time from other items

still think we'll see a vote in july – but can it get to 60? we hope it can but it's not obvious at the moment that it will https://t.co/fnbamkUzXp

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) June 26, 2026

Crowded Senate calendar slows CLARITY Act

Thorn stressed that the downgrade reflects timing rather than a loss of confidence in the legislation itself. The CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee by a 15 to 9 vote on May 14 and has remained on the Senate Legislative Calendar since June 1, yet lawmakers haven’t scheduled a floor vote or released a unified version combining the Banking and Agriculture committees’ proposals.

The Senate has only a limited number of legislative weeks before lawmakers begin their August recess, leaving limited time for floor debate on the CLARITY Act. Thorn pointed to several competing priorities, including negotiations around the SAVE Act, unfinished work on Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, and the fiscal year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act. Each competes for Senate floor time during the remaining weeks before the August recess.

CLARITY Act still retains a viable path despite lower odds

Galaxy said the downgrade reflects procedural delays rather than weakening support for the legislation. Staff from both Senate committees continue working toward a combined legislative text, and Thorn said staff-level negotiations remain active. His concern is that key procedural steps have yet to materialize as the legislative calendar continues to shrink.

Prediction market Polymarket currently assigns the CLARITY Act a 44% chance of becoming law in 2026, compared with Galaxy Research’s revised 50% estimate.

The bill also faces unresolved disputes over ethics rules and developer protections, both of which could affect Senate support. Thorn said Galaxy would raise its odds if Senate leaders schedule a July floor vote, release a unified bill text, or resolve those key policy issues.