Points of Focus

• The July 17 hearing at Federal Hall begins at 10 am Eastern; the livestream is public.
• Senate floor action is targeted for the week of July 21; the merged banking-agriculture text is still pending.
• Galaxy Research holds 60%-75% passage odds; Polymarket prices it at 39%-43%.

The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence will hold a field hearing titled “Building the Future of Finance: How the CLARITY Act Unlocks Innovation” at Federal Hall National Memorial in New York on Friday, July 17, at 10 am ET. The venue is deliberate.

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US HOUSE WILL HOST A HEARING ON THE CRYPTO CLARITY ACT ON FRIDAY, IN JUST 5 DAYS. pic.twitter.com/cptpktkDlu

— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) July 12, 2026

Holding the session in New York rather than a Capitol Hill committee room places the argument directly in front of the exchanges, banks, asset managers, and custodians that would operate under the law and signals that the House is treating the bill’s final push as a commercial and competitive argument rather than a purely regulatory one.

The hearing lands almost exactly one year after the House passed the bill 294-134 on July 17, 2025. The symmetry is not accidental. Chairman French Hill and subcommittee chair Bryan Steil have structured the week to pair the July 14 Federal Reserve monetary policy hearing with Jerome Powell’s successor, Kevin Warsh, with the July 17 CLARITY Act hearing, creating a two-session argument: Here is the macro picture, and here is the market structure framework America needs alongside it.

Where the bill stands as of July 13

Senate floor action is targeted for the week following the July 17 hearing, but the bill still requires a merged text reconciling the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committee versions, a motion to proceed, floor debate, and 60 votes to clear a filibuster.

Republicans hold 53 seats. Only Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks backed the bill in committee, both with caveats, meaning at least seven additional Democratic crossovers are required.

Democrats have raised concerns about whether proposed ethics provisions would strengthen or weaken accountability standards. The ethics dispute centers on President Donald Trump’s $1.4 billion in disclosed crypto income for 2025, with Democratic negotiators seeking language restricting officials and their families from profiting on digital assets while shaping policy.

Three additional disputes remain live: Section 604 developer protections, which law enforcement groups argue create gaps in Anti-Money Laundering enforcement; stablecoin yield treatment, where the American Bankers Association argues the current text creates competitive loopholes for digital asset platforms; and reconciliation between the Banking and Agriculture Committee texts, which have not yet produced a unified draft.

Couldn’t agree more with @POTUS. Senator Graham was a good friend of mine and was passionate about ensuring that American leadership stayed at the forefront of everything – including digital assets.

Let’s get Clarity passed and to President Trump’s desk. pic.twitter.com/F62WwkX4GP

— Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) July 13, 2026

Odds, analyst calls, and what a miss means

Galaxy Research estimates a 60%-75% chance the bill becomes law in 2026, projecting a possible presidential signature during the week of Aug. 3. Polymarket currently prices 2026 passage between 39% and 43%, down from 74% a month ago.

Beacon Policy Advisors said the Senate must pass the bill before the August recess for it to become law this year, warning that fall incentives shift toward midterm election politics.

More than 200 organizations, including Coinbase, Ripple, Kraken, Circle, Uniswap, Paradigm, and Andreessen Horowitz, have urged Senate leaders to bring the bill to the floor. Coinbase vice chair Ryan VanGrack, a former official at the Securities and Exchange Commission, described the bill as on the one-yard line on July 10.

Senator Cynthia Lummis has warned that regulatory limbo is driving builders abroad, and Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Michael Selig cautioned that a stalled bill leaves digital asset rules to regulators rather than Congress.

The Senate separately passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act with a provision banning the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency through Dec. 31, 2030, tucked inside an 85-5 bipartisan vote, a procedural signal that crypto-adjacent provisions can attract broad Senate support when the political framing is right.

Whether that lesson transfers to the CLARITY Act’s harder jurisdictional and ethics questions is the question Friday’s hearing must begin to answer.