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Bitcoin traders have had a rough year. After watching prices collapse more than 50% from an all-time high of $126,198 set in October 2025, the sentiment on trading desks has largely been one of damage control. That appears to be changing.
Sentiment in the derivatives market has shifted sharply toward the upside in recent days. On Deribit, the world’s dominant crypto options exchange by volume, the $80,000 call option has overtaken the $60,000 put to become the single most popular trade on the platform. It marks a meaningful psychological turning point.
For much of the first quarter, traders were paying premiums to protect against further downside rather than betting on a recovery. That defensive posture has now been replaced by a willingness to chase the rally.
Total open interest tied to bullish $80,000 calls has climbed above $1.6 billion, a figure that reflects genuine conviction rather than casual speculation. Bitcoin itself was trading around $70,609.77 at the time of writing, up more than 4% over the past week.
BTC Reclaimed the Flip. 70K Is the Magnet. 72K Is the Wall. 80K Is the Ceiling.
BTC reclaimed the gamma flip.
$71,455 spot
$67,568 flip
$70,000 max gamma / magnet
$72,000 call wall
$70,000 put wall
$80,000 primary ceiling strike+$119M net gamma
Above the flip, dealer hedging… pic.twitter.com/NMcOgzudy3
— David (@david_eng_mba) April 9, 2026
One of the more striking signals underpinning the recovery is what is happening at the wallet level. For only the second time in 2026, addresses holding more than 10,000 Bitcoin have recorded net inflows. That kind of accumulation by large holders, often called whales, is historically associated with tightening supply conditions rather than the more passive ETF flows that have driven much of the institutional narrative this cycle. When deep-pocketed buyers absorb large quantities of coins at the same time retail positioning is shifting bullish, analysts say the setup can accelerate quickly.
Strategy has already purchased 4,871 Bitcoin worth roughly $330 million in the first week of April alone, reinforcing its well-established pattern of treating price pullbacks as buying opportunities.
More than $1.5 billion has flowed into Bitcoin spot ETFs over the past month, bringing cumulative inflows across all US-listed products past the $53 billion mark since their January 2024 launch. BlackRock’s IBIT fund led the pack in March. The sustained inflow trend is notable because it has continued even as Bitcoin traded well below its peak, suggesting that institutional allocators are treating the drawdown as a long-term entry point rather than a reason to exit.
Analysts at 21Shares noted that larger investors have grown their holdings by roughly 6% (the number of ≥1k BTC holders rose from 1,219 to 1,299) since the start of the year, a sign of deliberate accumulation that tends to look through short-term volatility.
A fragile ceasefire proposal between the United States and Iran, brokered by Pakistan and covering an initial 45-day window, has reduced oil prices and lifted risk appetite across global markets.
Brent crude had surged past $110 per barrel in February and March following the outbreak of hostilities and the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly 20% of globally traded oil. The prospect of that pressure easing has given traders in stocks, commodities, and crypto alike reason to reduce their defensive hedges.
Bitcoin itself jumped sharply when the ceasefire news broke, with more than $270 million in short positions liquidated as bearish bets unwound. The rally has continued to build since.
The week’s most closely watched economic release is now out. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed this morning that headline consumer prices rose 3.3% year over year in March, up sharply from 2.4% in February and the highest annual reading since May 2024. On a monthly basis, prices climbed 0.9%, the steepest single-month gain since June 2022. The reason is well understood: gasoline has risen above $4 per gallon nationally for the first time in more than three years, pushed there by the Iran conflict and the resulting disruption to Strait of Hormuz oil flows.
Core inflation, which strips out food and energy to give a cleaner read on underlying price pressures, came in at 2.7% annually and 0.3% for the month. That is firm but not catastrophic. It means the energy shock has not yet bled heavily into the broader economy, which gives the Federal Reserve some room to breathe for now. However, Oxford Economics warned earlier this week that headline CPI could breach 4% by April if the conflict drags on, a figure that would make any rate cut conversation politically and practically impossible.
Adding to the Fed’s tight spot, minutes from the March 17 to 18 meeting released on Wednesday revealed that some policymakers on the rate-setting committee have begun discussing the possibility of a future rate hike, a notable shift from where consensus sat just months ago. The Fed voted 11 to 1 to hold the benchmark rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% at that meeting. Its own updated projections now show PCE inflation averaging 2.7% in 2026, revised upward from 2.4%, and seven of the 19 committee participants now see no rate cuts at all this year.
The February Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge released Thursday, added further nuance. It rose 0.4% monthly, a sign that pressure was already building before the full weight of the Iran energy shock arrived. Consumer spending did increase 0.5% in February, but once inflation is accounted for, the real gain was just 0.1%. Households are spending more but getting less for it.
One partial offset is the tariff picture. The effective US tariff rate has fallen to roughly 8%, down from a peak of 21% during the April 2025 trade escalation, which removes one source of inflationary pressure even as energy costs surge. Whether that cushion is enough to keep core inflation contained through the summer remains the central question for rate expectations and, by extension, for Bitcoin.
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