Bitcoin (BTC) crossed $81,415 on May 6, up 0.65% on the day, breaking above $80,000 for the first time in 2026, as per data from CoinGecko. Analyst David Eng published a 10-year power-law model alongside the breakout, framing the $80K level not as a ceiling to fight through but as a compounding floor on its way to much higher levels.
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BITCOIN IN 2036: THE FLOOR IS THE STORY
Bitcoin’s floor is compounding.
Today:
BTC: $80,936
Power-law trend: ~$130K
Current p10 floor: ~$61K2036 model output:
p10 floor: $783K
Median: $1.70M
p90 upside: $4.44MFrom today’s price:
Floor case: 9.7x
Median case: 21.0x
Upside… pic.twitter.com/aHSnUJKl5o— David (@david_eng_mba) May 5, 2026
The headline number from the model is $783,000 by 2036. That is the conservative case: the p10 outcome across 8,000 Monte Carlo simulation paths built on Bitcoin Power Law v6.8, with a PL backbone and smooth κ(z) conditional dynamics. The median output is $1.70 million. The upside from p90 is $4.44 million. But David’s framing makes clear that the extraordinary number is not the upside. It is the floor.
The power-law model works by fitting Bitcoin’s historical price series to a long-term trend function (current power-law trend: approximately $130,000) and then simulating 8,000 forward paths that capture the variance structure of Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior around that trend. The p10 floor is not the worst case. It is the level at which 90% of simulated paths end. The model produces a probability-weighted output table:
The CAGR decomposition is where the insight lives. At 25% CAGR (the floor case), Bitcoin does not need to do anything exceptional. It needs to do what it has done in every decade since inception: compound at a rate significantly above traditional asset classes while its supply issuance mechanically decreases through halvings. The current p10 floor sits at approximately $61K. The model says that the floor is compounding, not just holding.
‘Bitcoin does not need a huge upside forecast for the long-term math to be extraordinary,’ David writes. ‘Even the conservative band compounds hard. The rising floor is the signal.’
The current power-law trend sits at approximately $130,000, meaning BTC at $80,936 is trading at a 38% discount to the trend. Every previous time BTC has traded materially below its power-law trend, it has eventually reverted to and through it. The model does not require that reversion to happen quickly. It only requires that it happens.
Data and technicals from TradingView show that BTC has now crossed above the dotted horizontal resistance at approximately $80,000-$81,000, which defined the ceiling throughout April.
The session high of $81,739 is the highest print since late January 2026. The recovery structure of higher lows since the February trough near $61,000 ($65,000 March, $68,000 mid-March, $72,000 early April, $76,000 late April) remains entirely intact, and today’s close above the dotted line confirms the breakout.
The MA stack from the indicator panel is the most bullish it has been all year. BTC sits above every short and medium-term average. Only EMA200 ($82,087) and SMA200 ($83,293) remain as overhead resistance. The EMA200 at $82,087 is the immediate target.
A daily close above it would flip the primary long-term MA from resistance to support for the first time since August 2025, a structural development the model’s compounding floor thesis depends on.
On oscillators, RSI at 68.98 is within 1 point of the 70 overbought threshold. Stochastic %K at 89.13 is elevated. Both signal that near-term consolidation is possible before a continuation toward $84,000-$85,000. MACD at 1,947.06 registers a buy signal. ADX at 28.89 has crossed above the 25 directional threshold, confirming the breakout carries genuine trend conviction, unlike the failed $78,000-$79,000 attempts in April, where ADX was below 25.
The 10-year model’s floor at $783,000 requires neither a specific macro catalyst nor a specific adoption milestone. It requires the power-law relationship that has held across 15 years of Bitcoin price history to continue holding. Halvings mechanically reduce supply issuance in 2028 and 2032. Institutional demand through spot ETF structures is structurally different from retail demand: slower to enter, slower to exit, and compounding as allocation percentages rise over time.
The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve announcement, expected from the White House within weeks, per Patrick Witt at Bitcoin Vegas 2026, introduces sovereign demand as a new variable that the power-law model does not yet price. If the US formalizes the accumulation of its existing 328,372 BTC and creates a framework for additional purchases, the floor case strengthens.
Trump Admin to Unveil Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Plan Soon
The Trump administration is actively advancing its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve plan. According to a Bybit weekly report, the White House confirmed it plans to release the formal strategy within the next two months, aiming… pic.twitter.com/FrWROVmuyA
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) April 28, 2026
At $81,415, BTC is 38% below the current power-law trend of $130,000 and has a 9.7 times return path to the 2036 conservative floor. The median path is 21 times. The model says the floor is the story. The floor is rising.
The EMA200 at $82,087 is the near-term technical hurdle. A daily close above it opens the path to $84,000-$85,000 as the next resistance zone. The May seasonality data supports continuation: May is historically Bitcoin’s second-strongest month behind January, averaging 11.4% across all cycles. The gamma ceiling that pinned BTC below $80,000 throughout April has been cleared, with $108 million in remaining gamma not expiring until 29 May. Until then, the mechanical suppression from dealer hedging is significantly reduced.
FOMC is not until June. The ceasefire extension has reduced the Hormuz risk premium. The macro window between now and late May is the clearest run Bitcoin has had without a defined near-term binary catalyst since October 2025. The floor model says the compounding is already happening. The chart says the breakout has already started.
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