Points of Focus

• Spot BTC ETFs attracted $996M in net inflows for the week ending April 17, the strongest weekly performance since mid-January, per SoSoValue data.
• Bitcoin (BTC) hit $78,000 on the Strait of Hormuz reopening before pulling back to $75,000 after Iran rejected second-round peace talks on April 19.
• The April 17 short squeeze triggered $762M in crypto liquidations, with $593M on the short side, the largest single-session unwind of 2026.

Bitcoin (BTC) trades around $75,150 and has a market capitalization of $1.5 trillion, according to CoinGecko data. The token posted approximately 5% weekly gains after a volatile session that saw BTC touch $78,000 before retreating. 

The token has since pulled back to around $75,000 on April 19-20 following renewed geopolitical escalation, but the weekly structure remains constructive.

$996M in ETF inflows: the strongest week since January

SoSoValue data shows spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $996M in net inflows for the week of April 13-17, the highest weekly intake since early January when inflows reached approximately $1.4B.

The daily breakdown reveals accelerating momentum. 

• Monday opened with a $291M outflow. 
• Tuesday saw inflows flip to $ 411.5 M. 
• Wednesday added $186M. 
• Thursday was quiet at $26M. 
• Then Friday detonated: $663.9M poured in, the strongest single-day performance since January.

Total net assets across spot BTC ETFs climbed above $101B by Friday’s close, with daily trading volumes nearing $4.8B.

This is the third consecutive week of positive flows, a streak not seen since November 2025. The capital is structural, not speculative. BlackRock’s IBIT continues to dominate daily inflows, with cumulative net inflows now exceeding $63B since launch.

The Hormuz whipsaw

The week’s price action was defined by geopolitics, not charts.

On April 17, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz fully open to commercial shipping for the remaining ceasefire period. Oil crashed 10% within hours. BTC ripped from $74,600 to $78,000 in a single session.

The move triggered $762M in crypto liquidations across 168,336 traders, per CoinGlass data. Of that total, $593M was on the short side, making it the largest short squeeze of 2026. Bitcoin alone accounted for $382M in liquidations. The squeeze was mechanical: K33 Research’s Vetle Lunde had flagged that perpetual funding rates had been negative for 46+ consecutive days, indicating that crowded shorts had been building throughout the consolidation. When the Hormuz catalyst arrived, the unwind was violent.

30-day average funding rates in Binance's BTCUSDT perp have now been negative for 46 consecutive days, matching the streak from Nov 11 to Dec 26, 2022. pic.twitter.com/BOilnOMjz8

— Vetle Lunde (@VetleLunde) April 14, 2026

The rally lasted under 24 hours. After Iran shut the Strait again and rejected US talks, BTC fell back below $75K on April 19 as risk sentiment reversed.

It’s the third such move this month, headline-driven spikes followed by sharp pullbacks. Traders chasing the news have been caught on the wrong side each time.

Technical levels to watch

TradingView charts show that Bitcoin’s price is consolidating in the $72,000 to $78,000 range, with the Hormuz-driven spike to $78,000 on April 17 and the pullback to $73,750 on April 19 defining the upper and lower boundaries of the current band.

• Upside: $76K–$78K remains the ceiling, with three failed tests in April. A weekly close above $76K would confirm a breakout. Above that, $80K–$80.6K is the next key resistance, where options positioning shifts.
• Downside: Initial support sits at $74K, followed by $72K near the 50-day SMA. A break below $72K opens the path to the 200-day SMA around $69.8K, which has held since February.
• Momentum: RSI has cooled to the mid-50s, leaving room for another move higher. The broader trend of higher lows ($60K to $68K to $73K) remains intact.

The ceasefire clock

The two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran expires on April 22. Polymarket odds for the ceasefire extending past April 21 sit at approximately 15%, though Iran’s rejection of second-round talks on April 19 adds significant uncertainty.

If the ceasefire holds, oil stays below $90 and BTC has room to retest $78K—with breakout potential. If it breaks down, oil likely spikes above $100 and BTC could revisit $72K–$73K ahead of the April 28–29 FOMC.

ETF flows remain the key driver. Nearly $1B in weekly inflows and consistent buying suggest institutions are using volatility as an entry point, not an exit.

BTC at $75,150 sits mid-range between $72K support and $78K resistance. The setup is clear: ETF demand is strong, but direction now hinges on geopolitics and the upcoming Fed signal.