Points of Focus

• BTC hit $79,388 before oil surged 4% to $94, triggering a pullback to $77,800.
• Strategy’s $2.54 billion buy pushed total holdings to 815,061 BTC, its third-largest weekly purchase on record.
• Six consecutive ETF inflow days, including a $238M single-day spike.

Bitcoin (BTC) touched $79,388 on April 22, its highest level since early February, before reversing to approximately $77,800 as oil jumped 4% to $94 per barrel.

The rally and retreat played out within 24 hours, driven by two competing forces: Trump’s indefinite ceasefire extension, which removed a near-term tail risk, and the IEA’s declaration of ‘the biggest energy security threat in history’ as Iran continued seizing ships in the Strait of Hormuz despite the truce.

The pattern is now familiar. Three times in April, a geopolitical catalyst pushed BTC sharply higher and oil lower, only for the conflict dynamics to reassert within hours. What is different this time is the underlying accumulation structure. The pullback to $77,800 is landing on a base that did not exist six weeks ago.

Trump extends, Iran escalates

Trump announced the ceasefire extension indefinitely on April 21, ahead of the truce’s scheduled expiry, citing internal divisions within Iran’s leadership and the need for a unified proposal from Tehran. Pakistani mediators requested the extension. The announcement removed the immediate threat of renewed conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, and Bitcoin opened on April 22 near $76,342 before surging to $79,214 intraday.

The short squeeze that followed was mechanical. K33 Research had flagged 46 consecutive days of negative perpetual funding rates entering the week, meaning short positioning had been building throughout the consolidation. When the ceasefire headline landed, over $330M in short liquidations cascaded across major derivatives exchanges, amplifying the move from $76K to $79K in hours.

30-day average funding rates in Binance's BTCUSDT perp have now been negative for 46 consecutive days, matching the streak from Nov 11 to Dec 26, 2022. pic.twitter.com/BOilnOMjz8

— Vetle Lunde (@VetleLunde) April 14, 2026

The reversal came from energy markets. Oil jumped 4% to $94 per barrel after Fox News reported Trump was maintaining maritime pressure on Iran despite the extension, and Iran escalated ship seizures in the Strait. Stock futures turned red. Bitcoin fell back to $77,300 overnight and has since stabilized near $77,800.

Strategy adds 34,164 BTC at $74,395

The accumulation data below the price action is the more durable signal. Strategy disclosed on April 20 that it purchased 34,164 BTC between April 13-19 at an average price of $74,395, for a total of $2.54B. The acquisition, its third-largest weekly purchase on record and its largest since November 2024, was funded through $2.18 billion in STRC preferred stock sales and $366 million in MSTR common share sales.

🧵 1/
BitMine provided its latest holdings update for April 20, 2026:

$12.9 billion in total crypto + "moonshots":
– 4,976,485 ETH at $2,301 per ETH (@coinbase)
– 199 Bitcoin (BTC)
– $200 million stake in Beast Industries @MrBeast
– $107…

— Bitmine (NYSE-BMNR) $ETH (@BitMNR) April 20, 2026

Total holdings now stand at 815,061 BTC, acquired at an average cost of $75,527. Strategy has reclaimed the top corporate Bitcoin holder position from BlackRock’s IBIT. At $77,800, the position is modestly profitable. At $74,395, the average buy price for this tranche, Bitcoin is 4.6% above the Strategy’s cost basis on the week’s purchases.

Six consecutive days of ETF inflows

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded six straight days of net inflows through April 22, including a $238 million daily spike that pushed 2026 year-to-date flows back into positive territory at around $245 million. The previous week saw $996 million in inflows, the strongest since mid-January. Total assets under management now approach $99 billion, while Morgan Stanley’s MSBT added $71 million in its first full trading week.

Institutional capital that rotated out during the first quarter is coming back through regulated ETF structures rather than spot exchanges.

Technical levels to watch

Charts and data from TradingView and the daily chart. Price at $77,800, having printed a session high of $79,388 before the oil-driven reversal. 

The most important chart detail is where the price is sitting. The $79,000-$80,000 band is a critical zone. BTC has tested it twice in April without a daily close above $79,000. A sustained close above opens the path to $80,600, where options market dealer gamma flips, and the EMA200 cluster at $82,000-$85,000 as the next major overhead. The $330M short squeeze cleared most near-term bearish fuel and funding rates are resetting toward neutral, meaning the next leg requires fundamental rather than mechanical support.

Support at $76,000-$76,400 has held across every April pullback. Below that, $74,000-$74,400 is the strategic buy zone, where the most patient institutional buyer just demonstrated its price. A drop there would almost certainly attract fresh corporate accumulation.

On the indicators, the MA summary remains strong buy (11 buy, 2 sell), with BTC sitting above every MA from EMA10 through SMA100. Only EMA200 ($82,500) and SMA200 ($85,900) remain as overhead. The RSI at 65.01 from April 22’s session had approached overbought territory (70+), and today’s pullback is consistent with a healthy reset before any continuation. The MACD at +1,903 holds its buy signal. ADX at 20.61 is the structural caution: below the 25 directional threshold, confirming the trend has momentum but not yet the conviction of a sustained breakout.

Arthur Hayes: $125K by year-end, but only if the Fed prints

Kyle Chasse revealed on April 23 that Arthur Hayes is now targeting $125k by year-end.

🔥 HAYES SAYS BITCOIN IS GOING TO $125,000.

But that's not all he said…

This was easily one of the most eye-opening interviews I've ever had and the details WILL shock you.

From macro to micro, @cryptohayes keeps you on your feet with the alpha we NEED to hear.

Full video… pic.twitter.com/mFLYYmh3Vr

— Kyle Chassé 🐸 (@Kylechasse) April 22, 2026

Hayes’ thesis has one variable: Federal Reserve liquidity. He calls Bitcoin explicitly a ‘liquidity smoke alarm,’ something that doesn’t move until the credit taps open. ‘Money printing is good for Bitcoin,’ he has said repeatedly. Until central banks ease, he stays on the sidelines.

Arthur Hayes published ‘No Trade Zone’ on April 15, his most comprehensive framework yet for how the Hormuz conflict resolves for Bitcoin. The essay lays out three scenarios and reaches the same conclusion in each.

• Back to normal: the war ends, but AI displacement accelerates the pink-slip cycle, banks become insolvent, and the Fed prints. 
• Tehran toll booth: Iran demands yuan or crypto for Strait transit; nations sell Treasuries to raise yuan; the petrodollar unravels; the Fed prints. 
• Empire strikes back: the US destroys Iran’s interdiction capability, but Iran takes Gulf energy production with it, and central banks print into a commodity spike.

The conclusion is identical in all three: money printing is good for Bitcoin.

The framing matters at $77,800. Hayes is not calling a specific price target in this essay. He is building the case that regardless of which Hormuz scenario plays out, the macro endgame is liquidity expansion.

FOMC on April 28-29

The next binary catalyst is six days away. The Fed is expected to hold at 3.50-3.75%, with CME FedWatch pricing a 97% probability of no change. The actionable signal is Powell’s language on inflation. The March CPI at 3.3% gives the Fed room to signal easing without cutting rates.

Bulls are eyeing $80,000-$85,000 if peace holds through May and the FOMC delivers a neutral-to-dovish signal. Miner selling and oil at $94 are the two things standing between $77,800 and that range.