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Bitcoin reclaimed $70,000 on Monday 23rd day of March 2026 after Trump announced a five-day pause on US strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure. The move was immediate.
Shorts got squeezed, Brent crude sold off sharply and risk appetite returned across markets. In an X article, Wintermute’s trading desk has summarized the dynamic bluntly. The article points to geopolitical risk premium in oil as the primary variable controlling Bitcoin’s next directional move.
— Wintermute (@wintermute_t) March 24, 2026
According to the article, the range is specific. If Hormuz flows normalize and oil stabilizes near $100, Wintermute sees Bitcoin retesting $74,000–$76,000. However, if talks break down and shipping restrictions persist, mid-$60,000s becomes the base case. Sustained de-escalation. Genuine normalization of tanker traffic would then open a path toward $80,000 if institutional dip-buying continues.
The Strait of Hormuz is no longer simply open or closed. It is now a permissioned corridor controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reportedly at a toll of approximately $2 million per tanker, payable in yuan.
Nevertheless, Iranian crude is still flowing, pushing out approximately 1.1 to 1.5 million barrels per day. This is mostly going to China. But the blockade applies to everyone else. That supply squeeze is what keeps inflation fears elevated, keeps the Fed’s hands tied and keeps the macro ceiling on Bitcoin in place.
Independent analyst, Shanaka Anslem Pereira, notes that the yuan preference could have long term currency implications. But for Bitcoin, the immediate picture shows that every day the strait remains restricted is another day rate-cut expectations stay priced out and risk appetite stays compressed.
BREAKING: The Strait of Hormuz is no longer closed. It is no longer open. It is something the world has never seen before: a permissioned corridor run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, priced at $2 million per vessel, payable in yuan.
Three ships transited in the last 24… pic.twitter.com/RT3xGeuTqp
— Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86) March 24, 2026
The five-day diplomatic window aligns directly with $13.5 billion in Bitcoin options expiring on March 27. As Alphawire’s own coverage documented, $75,000 is the key strike level, close to max pain. It is where the largest number of contracts expire worthless.
Market makers managing large call positions near that strike adjust spot exposure dynamically, creating conditions for either short-term price pinning or sharp moves once hedges unwind.
Before the oil dynamic became dominant, Bitcoin was tracking a familiar pattern. It climbed toward $74,000 mid-week on derivatives-driven momentum, short covering and gamma pressure rather than fresh spot buying.
However, with rate cuts no longer in the picture, geopolitics comes in to fill the vacuum left by monetary policy as the primary price driver.
With Bitcoin back above $70,000 and options max pain clustered near that level, supportive headlines through the five-day pause could carry momentum into expiry. Wintermute’s desk explicitly flagged this alignment. Positive updates on Hormuz tanker traffic before March 27 could push BTC toward the $74,000–$76,000 resistance zone that has rejected price twice already.
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