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Bitcoin’s drop to $60,000 in February may look like capitulation, but one analyst warns the move could be a classic bear-market trap rather than the start of a sustained recovery.
Heavy selling volume triggered what technical analysts call a “selling climax,” a pattern that often precedes sharp rebounds but does not necessarily signal a long-term bottom.
Markets are now grappling with whether Bitcoin’s rebound toward $70,000 marks the beginning of a new bull phase or merely a temporary relief rally within a broader downtrend.
A Selling Climax and a confirmed bear market bottom are not the same thing. The distinction matters more than most traders realize.
A Selling Climax is a moment of total emotional exhaustion. Sellers who held through the entire drawdown finally panic and dump at once, creating a sharp price drop and massive volume spike.
A lot of people looked at that February candle and decided $60K was the bottom because the sell volume looked climactic.
That is the wrong conclusion.
A Selling Climax is not the same thing as a confirmed bear market low.
What it usually tells you is that the market has… pic.twitter.com/9IR7HFS1u8
— Ardi (@ArdiNSC) March 31, 2026
This almost always triggers a strong bounce, signaling the heaviest selling pressure has been cleared. But clearing sell pressure is not the same as forming a real bottom. The bounce can feel convincing and look like recovery, while the broader bearish trend remains fully intact.
Bitcoin closed March at $68,215 (RSI 44🔵)
As said before, I would not be surprised if BTC dips below 200w moving average ($59k) and realized price ($54k) before next leg up towards S2F $500k levels ($250k-$1m range). Interesting times head. pic.twitter.com/8R91WdWCVR
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) April 1, 2026
Another analyst, known as PlanBTC on X, expects Bitcoin to retest both levels before the next major leg higher toward the $250,000–$1 million range. This prediction is based on Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, which currently sits near $59,000, with its realized price near $54,000. Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, also shares the sentiment that the bottom isn’t here yet.
In June 2022, Bitcoin produced an almost identical setup. It featured climactic sell volume, sharp price drop and widespread “bottom is in” calls. A strong bounce followed. Then, months later, it made a new low at $15,000.
That exact sequence, climactic candle, relief rally, new low, is what analyst ArdiNSC is warning about right now. The February 2026 $60K candle fits the same template perfectly.
Calling a Selling Climax a confirmed bottom is a crowd psychology error as much as a technical one. At peak emotional exhaustion, markets often create strong consensus that “this is the low.” The relief rally pulls in buyers who missed the perceived bottom. However, if the bear market process is not actually finished, those buyers risk becoming the next wave of trapped longs.
Not everyone agrees. Some traders argue the February 2026 $60,000 Selling Climax, coupled with the strong bounce to $70,000, is a sign of collapse. Others, including ArdiNSC, see it as a classic relief rally inside an ongoing downtrend. But even with those who believe the bottom isn’t here yet, agreement on a particular price threshold seems to be missing. Some say $50,000, some $30,000.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $70,000. Now, whether it represents the beginning of a new trend or a relief rally inside a continuing downtrend is the question the market is still answering.
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