Points of Focus

• Raoul Pal says Bitcoin and the Nasdaq are driven by global liquidity, claiming Bitcoin has an 87% correlation and the Nasdaq 97%.
• Easy money tends to lift both markets, while tighter credit and higher borrowing costs can weigh on Bitcoin and tech stocks alike.
• Pal believes Bitcoin is currently lagging liquidity trends, suggesting it could have room to catch up if global liquidity continues to improve.

Bitcoin and the Nasdaq appear different to the average onlooker, but Raoul Pal says they tend to react to the same market forces or, as Pal specifies, the money and credit moving through global markets.

In a July 27 X post, the Real Vision founder claimed Bitcoin has an 87% correlation with global liquidity. He put Nasdaq’s correlation at 97%.

Bitcoin is 87% correlated to global liquidity. The NASDAQ is 97% correlated.

Which tells you something most people never realise. These assets are not really trading on earnings, or news, or whatever the story of the week is. They’re tracking the amount of money in the system.… pic.twitter.com/lWFjzm7dcg

— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) July 27, 2026

Essentially, Pal believes that both markets tend to increase when funding is easy to find, but they both struggle when money becomes harder or more costly to borrow.

He also notes that the global money supply can have a greater effect over time than daily news, company earnings, or other seemingly short-term events.

What global liquidity means

Global liquidity is the amount of money and credit available within the world’s financial systems. It consists of funding that businesses and investors can borrow or invest. The Bank for International Settlements describes global liquidity as how easy it is to get funding in global financial markets.

Central banks can increase the supply by lowering interest rates or buying assets, but regular banks can also take part by making more loans. Money raised through bond markets can increase the supply as well.

When money is easy to borrow, investors may feel more comfortable buying Bitcoin, stocks, and other alternative assets. Higher rates and tougher lending can leave less money available for those investments.

Why Bitcoin moves more sharply

Pal says Bitcoin reacts more strongly to these changes because it is younger and less stable than the Nasdaq. It also has fewer investors and less money moving through its market.

These factors can contribute to larger price swings. Bitcoin may rise faster when investors feel confident, but it can also crash harder when fear spreads.

Pal says Bitcoin is now running “cold” compared with global liquidity. This means its price is lower than his liquidity trends suggest it should be, meaning he believes Bitcoin is lagging right now and could catch up later.

If Pal is right, Bitcoin acts more like a slightly volatile technology stock. Investors may buy both Bitcoin and tech stocks when credit is easy to acquire, but these may be the first to go when the market gets tough.

However, this movement may challenge the idea that Bitcoin moves on its own, apart from regular financial markets.

Pal did not share his calculations

Pal’s 87% and 97% figures sound like they come from some thought-out math, but his post did not include the data behind them. He did not explain which years he studied or how he measured global liquidity.

He also did not say whether his mention of “Nasdaq” meant the Nasdaq Composite or the Nasdaq-100. Those indexes track different groups of companies.

Such specifics can mean very different things, but Pal’s ideas are still easy to follow: that more money and credit can help support both markets, even if they’re each susceptible to new rulings, company earnings, ETF demand, and far more.