MSTR Faces a Brutal Bitcoin Test as Saylor Tells Investors to Think 4–10 Years

Points of Focus

• MSTR is down 36% in 2026 and 73% over 12 months, underperforming Bitcoin.
• Strategy’s mNAV sits at 1.06x, narrowing the premium behind its equity-funded BTC model.
• Its 840,447 BTC are worth about $54B versus a $63.36B purchase cost.

Michael Saylor is asking MSTR investors to think in years as Strategy’s stock extends its underperformance against Bitcoin. 

With shares near $98 after a 73% decline over the past 12 months, Saylor said investors should expect to hold for at least four years, with seven to 10 years preferable.

Saylor: MSTR Investors Should Hold for at Least Four Years, Preferably Seven to 10, and Be Prepared for Difficult Years

Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said MSTR investors should have at least a four-year time horizon, with seven to 10 years preferable, and should be… pic.twitter.com/CH4w5vvR50

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) August 17, 2026

MSTR decline is outpacing Bitcoin

MSTR has fallen about 36% in 2026, sliding from $151.95 at the end of December to $97.68 on Monday. Bitcoin has held up better, trading near $64,289, about 27% below its early-January level of $87,879.

The gap is wider over 12 months. MSTR is down about 73%, compared with a roughly 45% decline in Bitcoin from its Aug. 18, 2025 close of $116,252.

Strategy has relied on MSTR trading above the value of its underlying Bitcoin to raise capital through common-stock sales. Its own dashboard currently puts the market-to-net asset value ratio, or mNAV, at 1.06x, leaving only a narrow premium over its Bitcoin reserve. As that premium narrows, issuing MSTR shares to fund Bitcoin purchases offers less upside than it did at higher multiples.

Strategy builds cash as Bitcoin sits below its cost

Strategy’s $4.8 billion USD reserve gives it another source of liquidity while Bitcoin trades below the company’s average purchase price. The reserve reached $4.8 billion on Aug. 16, up from $2.55 billion when its new capital framework began on June 29. 

Last week, Strategy raised $333.7 million through MSTR sales, using $52.4 million for STRC dividends, $132.2 million for STRC repurchases and $149.1 million to add to the reserve. No Bitcoin was sold.

Strategy has already shown it will use BTC when management favors that route. During Aug. 3–9, it sold 1,690 BTC for $108.6 million and directed the proceeds to STRC repurchases.

Strategy held 840,447 BTC as of Aug. 16 at an average purchase price of $75,385. With Bitcoin near $64,289, that position is worth about $54.0 billion, roughly $9.3 billion below its $63.36 billion aggregate purchase cost.