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BitMEX Research has proposed a conditional mechanism to delay any network-wide freeze of vulnerable Bitcoin until a quantum attack is actually proven on-chain. The idea introduces a ‘canary fund’ that acts as a live test of whether quantum computers can break Bitcoin’s cryptography, moving the decision from fixed timelines to on-chain proof.
The proposal arrives days after BIP-361 outlined a structured plan to phase out legacy wallets and freeze unmigrated funds within five years. That timeline has triggered immediate pushback, with developers on X arguing it imposes restrictions before the threat is confirmed.
— BitMEX Research (@BitMEXResearch) April 15, 2026
Canary fund design introduces proof-based quantum trigger
At the center of the proposal is a specially constructed Bitcoin address generated using a Nothing-Up-My-Sleeve Number method. The address is valid, but no one knows its private key.
In practice, this creates a public bounty. Users can send Bitcoin to the address, where the funds remain unspendable under current cryptography. If those funds are ever moved, it would signal that a quantum system has successfully derived the private key.
That single event becomes the trigger. Instead of relying on a predicted “Q-Day,” the network could respond in real time, activating a soft fork to freeze vulnerable coins based on proof, not assumption.
BIP-361 timeline faces resistance over forced freeze
BIP-361 proposes a three-stage transition. New deposits to vulnerable addresses would be restricted after three years, followed by a full freeze of unmigrated funds after five years.
The concern isn’t just technical. It touches Bitcoin’s core principle that users control their own funds.
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Jameson Lopp, one of the proposal’s authors, acknowledged the tension publicly, describing it as a contingency plan rather than a finalized path.
Thoughts on BIP-361:
* I know folks don't like it. I don't like it myself. I wrote it because I like the alternative even less.
* It isn't a spec, nor is it proposed for activation. It's a rough idea for a contingency plan that needs more R&D.
* I hope it never needs to be…
— Jameson Lopp (@lopp) April 15, 2026
The BitMEX alternative attempts to reduce that friction by keeping coins spendable unless a breach is demonstrated.
Incentive model and safety window introduce new risks
The canary system relies on incentives, assuming a quantum attacker would claim the bounty instead of targeting larger wallets. That may not hold. High-value dormant coins could be more attractive, creating a gap between detection and real attack behavior.
The proposal’s “safety window” temporarily locks outputs from vulnerable transactions to limit stealth attacks and allow response time, but it also adds complexity and potential edge cases for wallets and exchanges.
Quantum risk debate shifts from timeline to evidence
Estimates suggest roughly 34% of Bitcoin’s supply, including early-era holdings, has exposed public keys, making those coins theoretically vulnerable if cryptographic assumptions fail.
Recent research from Google Quantum AI has pointed to faster progress in quantum capabilities, including reduced resource requirements for breaking encryption. Still, no system today can perform such an attack at scale.
The BitMEX proposal reframes the issue. It doesn’t attempt to predict when quantum risk becomes real. It builds a mechanism to detect it in real time.
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