Share
Bitcoin and US tech stocks have moved together for much of the past cycle, but that relationship is now strained. Bitcoin has slid sharply since its October 2025 peak while the Nasdaq 100 has held near a flat range, a gap Arthur Hayes reads as a warning rather than noise. His claim is simple: Bitcoin reacts first when dollar credit tightens, and equities follow later.
Bitcoin's Divergence From Nasdaq Is a Warning on Dollar Liquidity: Arthur Hayeshttps://t.co/4h9SwiDWKq
— Decrypt (@DecryptMedia) February 18, 2026
Hayes describes Bitcoin as a “fiat liquidity fire alarm,” an idea rooted in speed. Bitcoin trades around the clock and lacks earnings seasons or buyback programs that cushion listed stocks, making it more sensitive when credit conditions worsen. Hayes argues the current split with the Nasdaq flags rising deflation risk, not a routine risk-off move.
Under his framework, markets price loan losses before policymakers respond. Bank equity weakens, credit availability shrinks, and only after visible damage do the central banks step in.
A look over the past five years seems indicative that today’s divergence is unusual. From 2020 through late 2021, Bitcoin and the Nasdaq rose together during aggressive monetary easing, then fell in tandem in 2022 as the Federal Reserve tightened policy. Correlation weakened during parts of 2023 before reasserting itself during the 2024–2025 rally tied to ETF inflows and improving liquidity.
Data compiled by Curvo comparing Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 show long stretches of close weekly tracking, even as day-to-day moves diverged. Sustained decoupling typically appeared around liquidity shifts rather than in isolation. History suggests the current split isn’t Bitcoin acting alone, but one market moving ahead of another.
Hayes pushes the argument further by pointing to artificial intelligence. He links AI adoption to white-collar job losses that strain consumer credit and mortgages. His model estimates that a 20% reduction in US knowledge workers could place more than $500 billion of consumer and mortgage debt under pressure, with smaller banks exposed first.
Not everyone agrees on timing. Ryan McMillin, Chief Investment Officer at Merkle Tree Capital, told Decrypt that disruption on this scale would likely unfold over quarters, not weeks. That pushback narrows the debate to pace rather than direction, as rising credit card delinquencies and mounting stress in software valuations already point to where pressure is starting to build.
If Bitcoin’s price action has already ‘spotted the fire’; equities may not yet have smelled the smoke. Gold’s recent strength alongside Bitcoin’s weakness adds weight to the deflation signal. The Federal Reserve has a record of acting after crises become visible, as seen in 2008 and during the regional bank failures of 2023. When that shift comes, liquidity returns fast.
For you, the signal is less about price targets and more about sequence. Bitcoin may be marking the start of credit stress rather than its end.
A great representation of the current status of the markets for #Bitcoin.
Technically, we can all argue that #Bitcoin is correlated with the Nasdaq.
Nasdaq has been showing resilience, Bitcoin has not.
That creates mispricing and a divergence.
That's why $100K is around the… pic.twitter.com/f8XYAqRNWS
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) December 9, 2025
If Hayes’ prediction is accurate, the split between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq forces a difficult realization: If Bitcoin acts as a vanguard for credit cycles, to overlook its current price movement may be to ignore a reliable past signal that preceded market shocks.
Share
