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Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $78,034 on April 22, up 2.9% on the day, as per CoinGecko data.
Three macro-catalysts compete for control of the near-term direction: the Iran ceasefire expiry today, Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing yesterday, and the FOMC meeting on April 28–29. The on-chain picture is the most constructive it has been in weeks. Whether the macro backdrop lets it matter is the question.
A CryptoQuant analyst noted that mid-sized Bitcoin inflows to Binance have fallen to 3000 to 4000 BTC on a 7-day average, the lowest since April 2023. These wallets are usually linked to traders and smaller institutions, so lower inflows suggest reduced sell pressure.
In April to May 2023, inflows were around 5500 to 6000 BTC, meaning current levels are down 30 to 40 percent. Retail activity is also weak, with wallets holding 1 to 100 BTC sending less than 300 BTC, well below distribution levels.
Coinbase data adds nuance. Mid-size inflows briefly rose to about 8,500 BTC on April 19, similar to levels seen after the FTX collapse. A similar spike in January came before a price drop.
However, broad distribution usually requires inflows across multiple exchanges. With Binance and others quiet, the Coinbase spike points to mixed sentiment rather than coordinated selling.
Kevin Warsh’s Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing on April 21 adds a dimension that markets have not yet fully priced in. Warsh, Trump’s nominee to replace Jerome Powell, positioned himself as a structural reformer rather than a rate-cutter.
He called explicitly for ‘regime change’ at the Fed, said the institution had ‘lost credibility,’ and proposed a ‘new framework’ for inflation targeting. He vowed not to be Trump’s ‘sock puppet’ on rates and declined to commit to cuts in exchange for the nomination. He also acknowledged that ‘Crypto is now a part of the US finance system.’
Kevin Warsh's Fed Chair hearing provided a lot of clues as to future policy.
Here's a TLDR:
On Independence: He pledged strict monetary policy independence. That said, he couldn't name a single Trump economic or fiscal policy he disagreed with (not a single one??)
On the…
— Nic (@nicrypto) April 22, 2026
His hawkish reputation and emphasis on fighting inflation are a near-term headwind for Bitcoin: a Warsh-led Fed means rates staying higher for longer. Former Chair Janet Yellen publicly doubted whether Warsh could sway the FOMC, noting he would need 11 other votes to change rates. The counter-read for Bitcoin: his confirmation, if it clears Sen. Tillis’s objection over the Powell investigation, removes the leadership uncertainty that has kept institutional positioning cautious. Markets can price a known hawk. They struggle to price a vacuum.
Charts and technicals from TradingView indicate that BTC is now in the buy-to-strong-buy range after surpassing $78,000.
BTC now trades above every MA from EMA10 through SMA100. Only EMA200 ($82,655) and SMA200 ($85,887) remain above the price. The $78,000-$79,000 chart resistance that rejected three prior attempts has flipped to support. Next resistance: $80,000-$80,600, then EMA200 at $82,655.
RSI at 65.01 and Stochastic %K at 82.14 leave limited room before overbought territory, making consolidation the more likely path to $80K than a straight-line run. MACD at +1,903 confirms the buy signal. ADX at 20.61 is the one caution: below the 25 directional threshold, meaning trend conviction has not yet caught up with price.
Support sits at $78,000 (reclaimed), Hull MA ($76,475), and the $76,000-$76,400 chart floor below that.
The ceasefire expires today. Polymarket priced extension odds at approximately 99% through Tuesday, though Iran’s rejection of second-round talks introduced genuine uncertainty. Ceasefire extension keeps oil below $90 and gives BTC room to close above $79,000. A collapse sends oil above $100 and brings $72,000 support back into focus before the FOMC arrives.
The FOMC on April 28-29 is the second inflection. The Fed is expected to hold at 3.50-3.75%. What traders will parse is Powell’s language on the inflation trajectory. Any dovish lean on 2026 rate cuts is a direct tailwind.
The CLARITY Act Senate markup is the third variable. Crypto-specific legislation clearing committee before month-end adds a policy tailwind to an already dense window. Sellers are stepping back per the on-chain data. The next 48 hours determine whether buyers have the macro clearance to push through to $79,000 and hold it.
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