Share
Bitcoin is trading at $70,855 on April 9, 2026, down 1.17% in the past 24 hours but up 6.47% over the past seven days. The price sits in a fragile holding pattern, caught between a fragile US-Iran ceasefire and a critical inflation report due tomorrow morning
Bitcoin dropped to a 2026 low of $65,725 on April 3 after President Trump threatened to strike Iran’s civilian infrastructure in a primetime address. The drop wasn’t isolated. Ethereum fell 5% and BNB declined 6.8% as the prospect of an escalated conflict in the Strait of Hormuz seemed to spook institutional investors.
BREAKING: President Trump agreed to a ceasefire and to "suspend the bombing and attack of Iran" for two weeks, contingent on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump said the two-week period will be used to finalize a possible long-term peace deal with Iran, and that… pic.twitter.com/fW5NtXVtFn
— Fox News (@FoxNews) April 7, 2026
Bitcoin jumped back above $70,000 on April 6, 2026 for the first time since March 25, 2026. This unfolded as investors weighed reports that Iran was seeking a ceasefire, with roughly $273 million in bearish bets unwound across crypto in 24 hours. The ceasefire has since been confirmed as a two-week pause, brokered with Pakistan’s mediation. However, traders remain cautious about its durability. Already, there have been reports of violations with Israel reportedly attacking Lebanon, which further calls the agreement into question.
The other major macro event arrives on April 10, 2026. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the March 2026 CPI print at 8:30 AM on the day. Notably, February CPI came in at 2.4% year-over-year.
CoinShares head of research James Butterfill has stated that if the conflict were to de-escalate, the immediate effect would likely come through lower oil prices and reduced inflation pressure. According to him, this would increase the probability of easier monetary policy, which often supports Bitcoin.
A hotter-than-expected CPI print tomorrow would complicate that scenario considerably.
The technicals present a mixed but slightly constructive picture. Bitcoin is trading above all short-to-medium term moving averages, the 10, 20, 30 and 50-day EMAs all sit below the current price, ranging from $69,197 to $70,498, all reading Buy.
However, the 100-day EMA at $75,485 and the 200-day EMA at $83,729 both read Sell, confirming the longer-term downtrend from October 2025’s $125K peak remains intact.
The RSI at 56 sits in neutral territory, not overbought, not oversold. The MACD at 145 reads Buy on the daily. The overall TradingView summary shows 11 Buy signals against 7 Sells across moving averages and oscillators, a slight lean toward the upside without conviction.
Classic pivot support sits at $69,728, with deeper levels at $63,442 and $58,670. On the resistance side, $74,500 is the first meaningful level to watch, followed by $80,786.
Glassnode’s on-chain data shows net outflows from exchanges on April 9, 2026: 3,563 BTC left exchanges against 1,281 BTC deposited. That net outflow of roughly 2,282 BTC is a mild accumulation signal, suggesting holders are moving coins into self-custody rather than positioning to sell.
Additionally, whale activity confirms the tone. Two large transactions were recorded in the past 48 hours, 850 BTC at $70,847 on April 9, 2026 and 852 BTC at $71,092 on April 8, 2026. Both point to continued large-buyer presence near current levels.
However, derivatives data from Coinglass tells a more cautious story. Open interest stands at $51.31 billion, roughly flat. The funding rate is slightly negative at -0.011%, meaning short positions are marginally dominant.
Recent liquidations in the past 24 hours leaned heavily long. $8.09 million in long liquidations against just $1.5 million short, suggesting leveraged bulls have been getting squeezed at current levels. Trading volume at $40.86 billion is down 11% in 24 hours, reflecting wait-and-see positioning ahead of tomorrow’s CPI.
Two catalysts will define Bitcoin’s next move. If April 10, 2026 CPI prints at or below 2.4% year-over-year, it strengthens the case for Fed rate cuts later in 2026, a historically supportive environment for Bitcoin. A hot print above 2.6%, compounded by oil prices still elevated from the Iran conflict, would likely push the Fed further on hold and weigh on risk assets including Bitcoin.
📅 Markets just had a massive day. Here’s what I’m watching the rest of April 🧵
3 Catalysts That Could Define Q2 2026:
1️⃣ FRIDAY — March CPI Report
• War-driven inflation spike expected
• If CPI comes in hot → macro headwinds return fast
• Could be the first real test of…— Invest Alpha Pro (@InvestAlphaPro) April 8, 2026
On the upside, a sustained hold above $69,500 with ETF inflows sustaining above $300 million daily sets up a test of $72,000, with $75,000 as the next major target. On the downside, a break below $66,500 on volume would deteriorate the technical structure fast, with $64,000 as the first meaningful support level.
BTC dominance at 58.9% reflects continued flight to quality within crypto. Bitcoin is not rallying on conviction, it is holding on resilience. How it responds to the incoming CPI print will tell traders which direction that resilience breaks.
Share
