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Point of Focus
- XRP ETFs hold roughly 930 million tokens, but that represents only 1.5% of the supply.
- Ripple makes approximately 300 million XRP available each month.
- ETF inflows have fallen from around $650 million to just $1 million in 10 months.
XRP (XRP) appears to have many of the ingredients for a supply squeeze. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have placed roughly 930 million tokens into custody, whale wallets are accumulating, and activity on the XRP Ledger is increasing.
Yet XRP remains under pressure near $1, revealing a disconnect between improving demand indicators and the market’s underlying supply dynamics.
The explanation is straightforward: Accumulation alone cannot lift the price when new demand is too weak to absorb the XRP becoming available.
ETF holdings remain too small to constrain
XRP ETFs have attracted $1.51 billion since launching in November 2025, removing about 930 million XRP from the liquid market. That sounds substantial, but it represents only around 1.5% of XRP’s 62.5 billion circulating supply.
By comparison, spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs hold approximately 6.1% of Bitcoin’s supply. XRP funds would need to control roughly 3.8 billion tokens to reach a similar share, almost 3 billion more than they currently hold.
$XRP network activity is soaring!
Since August 1, the number of active addresses has surged 84.18%, climbing from 23,642 to 43,543. https://t.co/70eHTdeG8a pic.twitter.com/uVd8fxBGX2
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) August 12, 2026
More importantly, ETF demand has lost momentum. Monthly inflows reportedly fell from around $650 million in November 2025 to just $1 million in August 2026.
With almost no new buying pressure, existing ETF holdings provide passive scarcity rather than an active catalyst for price appreciation.
Ripple’s escrow releases offset ETF accumulation
Ripple’s escrow system further weakens the squeeze narrative. Although 1 billion XRP is unlocked each month, around 700 million is typically returned to escrow. That still leaves approximately 300 million tokens available for operations, liquidity programs, and partnerships.
At that rate, only three months of net releases would equal the 930 million XRP accumulated by ETFs over nine months.
🚨 200,000 $XRP GONE in 97 minutes 🚨
A logic flaw in Coreum's bridge let an attacker drain funds WITHOUT touching any private keys it only checked memos, not real destination addresses 💀
XRPL itself is safe. This was a bridge bug.
Bridge is halted. Report still pending 👀 pic.twitter.com/ltZ2Ke6FZt— Xaif Crypto (@Xaif_Crypto) August 11, 2026
The tokens may be distributed gradually or through private transactions rather than immediately sold on exchanges, but they still expand the supply available to the wider market.
A genuine squeeze requires demand to consistently exceed this flow. Current ETF inflows are nowhere near that threshold.
Whales are buying, but retail selling still matters
Onchain signals nevertheless suggest that larger investors see long-term value. The number of wallets holding more than 1 million XRP reportedly increased by 32 between May and August, while active addresses jumped 84% during the first 11 days of August.
However, whale accumulation does not guarantee an immediate rally. Retail selling, weak momentum, and broader risk aversion can outweigh concentrated buying, especially when XRP’s large circulating supply gives sellers ample liquidity.
Whales increasing their XRP position as the price reaches a two year low.
Whales aren’t dumping, retail is. Whales are buying it up. 🔥 https://t.co/iZHwmd9BUz pic.twitter.com/k31ypHJknj
— Chad Steingraber (@ChadSteingraber) August 11, 2026
The potential catalyst is regulatory clarity. JPMorgan and Standard Chartered have estimated that favorable legislation, including the CLARITY Act, could help generate about $667 million in monthly XRP ETF inflows.
If sustained, that level of demand could finally outpace Ripple’s estimated 300-million-token monthly releases. Until then, XRP’s bullish accumulation signals remain a long-term setup — not evidence that a supply squeeze has already begun.
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