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XRP (XRP) is attempting to recover after one of its weakest monthly performances of 2026, with technical indicators suggesting the token may be building the foundation for a broader rebound.
After plunging by more than 22% in June and briefly testing support near $1.01, XRP has stabilized above the psychologically important $1 level, where buyers have consistently stepped in to defend prices.
The recovery comes as improving macroeconomic conditions boost risk appetite across financial markets. A softer US dollar, easing Treasury yields, and renewed expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts have lifted sentiment across cryptocurrencies, allowing XRP to outperform many of its recent lows.
While the token remains well below its yearly highs, a combination of bullish chart patterns, institutional demand through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and encouraging onchain data is fueling speculation that XRP could revisit the $1.15 area in the coming sessions.
The most notable technical development is the emergence of a rounded-bottom formation on XRP’s four-hour chart.
Unlike sharp V-shaped reversals, rounded bottoms typically develop over longer periods as selling pressure gradually fades and buyers begin accumulating at increasingly higher prices. XRP’s repeated defense of the $1.01-$1.06 support zone suggests bears may be losing control after weeks of sustained selling.
The token has already reclaimed its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and is now challenging the 50-day EMA near $1.07. Holding above these short-term trend indicators would strengthen the case that XRP has transitioned from accumulation into the early stages of a recovery.
The next major technical hurdle sits around the 200-day EMA between $1.14 and $1.15. A decisive four-hour close above $1.10 would likely confirm the bullish breakout and open the door for a move toward that resistance zone.
Momentum indicators also support the improving outlook. The relative strength index (RSI) has climbed to around 64, indicating strengthening buying pressure while remaining below traditionally overbought levels.
Rising trading volumes during recent advances further suggest that the latest rally is attracting genuine demand rather than short-covering alone.
However, the setup remains fragile. Failure to hold above $1.07 could send XRP back toward the $1.04 support area, while a break below $1.02 would significantly weaken the bullish thesis.
Despite XRP’s sharp decline throughout the second quarter, institutional investors have largely maintained their exposure.
XRP investment products have now recorded eight consecutive weeks of net inflows, with cumulative inflows reaching approximately $1.47 billion. The consistency of those purchases contrasts with the broader crypto market, where Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs recently experienced significant capital outflows.
Although ETF buying alone has not been sufficient to reverse XRP’s downtrend, it suggests that institutional investors continue viewing recent weakness as a buying opportunity rather than an exit point.
Onchain data paints a similarly constructive picture.
Exchange outflows nearly tripled during the final week of June, rising from about 41 million XRP to more than 120 million XRP. Large exchange withdrawals are commonly interpreted as a sign that investors are transferring tokens into long-term storage instead of preparing them for sale.
Meanwhile, XRP’s weekly RSI has entered oversold territory rarely seen since 2022, a level that has historically preceded multi-week recoveries.
Together, these indicators suggest that while price action remains cautious, accumulation may be taking place beneath the surface.
Broader market conditions are also becoming more supportive for cryptocurrencies.
The recent weakening of the US dollar and declining Treasury yields have eased financial conditions, encouraging investors to rotate back into higher-risk assets. Expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates later this year have further improved sentiment across digital assets.
Historically, July has also been XRP’s strongest calendar month, delivering an average return of just over 10%. While seasonal trends never guarantee future performance, they could provide an additional tailwind if market conditions remain favorable.
Investors are also closely watching Ripple’s regulatory position following California’s Digital Financial Assets Law (DFAL), which came into effect this week.
For now, the $1 level remains the key psychological support. If buyers continue defending that area and XRP breaks above $1.10, the technical outlook increasingly favors a retest of the $1.14-$1.15 resistance zone. Conversely, losing support near $1.02 could quickly shift momentum back in favor of sellers and expose the token to another leg lower toward the upper-$0.80 region.
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