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XRP (XRP) is approaching a decisive technical test after another failed recovery left the token trading near $1.06.
Buyers have repeatedly defended the area just above $1, but they have yet to generate enough momentum to reverse the broader downtrend.
The immediate challenge is the $1.08-$1.09 region, which has changed from support into resistance. Unless XRP reclaims that barrier, the latest bounce risks becoming another temporary pause before sellers push the price back toward $1 and potentially below it.
The daily chart continues to favor sellers. XRP is trading inside a descending channel and remains below both its 100-day and 200-day moving averages (MAs), two indicators commonly used to assess the longer-term trend.
Its latest rejection from the upper section of the channel reinforced the pattern of lower highs that has developed across recent sessions. Each attempted recovery has attracted new selling, suggesting investors are using rallies to reduce exposure rather than positioning for a sustained breakout.
The $1.02-$1.04 demand zone has prevented a deeper decline for now. Buyers entered when XRP returned to that range, producing a rebound toward $1.06. However, repeated tests can gradually weaken support as available demand is absorbed.
A daily close below $1.02 would represent more than a minor technical setback. It could expose the wider demand area near $0.89, taking XRP below the psychologically important $1 threshold.
On the four-hour chart, XRP recently fell beneath an ascending trendline that had supported a sequence of higher lows. The breakdown indicated that buyers had lost control of the short-term structure and triggered the decline toward $1.02.
The subsequent rebound has brought XRP back toward $1.08-$1.09. This area previously served as support, meaning traders are now watching whether it rejects the price from below.
Failure to break through would strengthen the bearish case and raise the probability of another test of $1.02-$1.04. Conversely, a decisive move above $1.09 could extend the recovery toward $1.16-$1.18.
Even that advance would not fully reverse the broader trend. The more important resistance sits between $1.24 and $1.28, where the descending trendline and major MAs converge. Reclaiming that zone would provide the first credible evidence that XRP is moving beyond a corrective bounce.
If the current support fails, the bearish target between $0.80 and $0.90 would imply a decline of 15%-25% from current levels. Such a move would be consistent with the token’s inability to establish higher highs and the wider caution affecting the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) weakness is also limiting risk appetite across altcoins. Without an improvement in the broader market, XRP may struggle to attract the volume required for a breakout.
$XRP$XRP is consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle 👀 Price is printing higher lows against lower highs, showing buyers are steadily absorbing selling pressure while momentum builds for the next big move. 📈
A decisive breakout from the triangle could spark a strong… pic.twitter.com/P4GoprwmzQ
— Crypto With Gopal (@cryptowithgopal) July 30, 2026
One potentially bullish signal comes from futures funding rates, which have fallen to unusually low levels. Deeply negative positioning can create the conditions for a short squeeze if the price unexpectedly rises. However, bearish sentiment alone is not a reversal signal.
For now, XRP’s roadmap is relatively clear. A break above $1.09 would improve the immediate outlook, while a move through $1.24-$1.28 would challenge the longer-term bearish structure. Losing $1.02, by contrast, could open the door to a slide below $1 and toward the $0.89 support region.
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