Point of Focus

• XRP’s bearish structure remains intact, with sellers defending the $1.09 resistance.
• Losing the crucial $1.01-$1.04 support zone could trigger a drop below $1.
• Ripple’s escrow release and the XRP Ledger 3.3.0 upgrade offer bullish catalysts.

XRP is approaching a decisive technical test as persistent selling pressure threatens to push the cryptocurrency below the psychologically important $1 level.

While Ripple’s latest escrow maneuver and an upcoming XRP Ledger upgrade offer reasons for optimism, buyers have yet to reverse the token’s broader bearish trend.

Sellers keep control of XRP’s price trend

XRP gained 1.8% to around $1.08 on Sunday, August 2, outperforming Bitcoin’s modest 0.2% rise. However, the rebound has done little to improve its underlying market structure.

The token continues to trade below a descending resistance trendline and its major moving averages. On the daily chart, XRP has also formed a succession of lower highs and lower lows, indicating that sellers remain in control.

A recent rejection near $1.09 pushed the price back toward the crucial $1.01-$1.04 demand zone. This area has prevented a deeper correction several times in recent weeks and now represents the bulls’ most important short-term defense.

A decisive breakdown could accelerate the sell-off and expose XRP to its next major support near $0.89.

XRP must reclaim $1.09 to avoid a breakdown

The first challenge for buyers is to break above the descending trendline and the 20-day exponential moving average near $1.09. The next resistance sits around $1.13, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

A daily close above $1.09, accompanied by stronger trading volume, could improve the immediate outlook. However, XRP would still need to reclaim the broader $1.24-$1.29 resistance zone to signal a more meaningful trend reversal.

Volatility is coming 👀

The real question is whether $XRP has what it takes to defend the $1.06 support floor created in mid-July, & then break $1.16. While defending the line, we are equally witnessing compression under the daily 20/50 EMAs ($1.08/$1.12)

Pressure is building.. https://t.co/1czHlNDsRA pic.twitter.com/HI33ifN1Gv

— 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) August 2, 2026

Until then, rallies are likely to remain corrective and encounter renewed selling pressure.

The bearish technical picture contrasts with Ripple’s potentially supportive escrow strategy.

Ripple completed its scheduled monthly release of 1 billion XRP but reportedly returned 700 million tokens to escrow beforehand. Consequently, only 300 million XRP entered the market, limiting the immediate supply increase and potentially reducing sell-side pressure.

The maneuver may help establish a psychological floor for XRP, although it has not yet generated sufficient demand to reverse the downtrend.

XRP Ledger upgrade offers another bullish catalyst

Attention is also turning to the expected release of XRP Ledger version 3.3.0. Validators will consider five proposed amendments, including revised Batch and Permission Delegation features.

Both functions were previously withdrawn after researchers discovered vulnerabilities that could have enabled unauthorized transactions or fee draining.

Their return could improve the network’s support for tokenized assets, institutional settlement and more flexible transaction management.

Despite these catalysts, XRP still lacks sustained buying conviction. Unless bulls reclaim $1.09 and subsequently $1.13, the $1.01-$1.04 support zone, and the possibility of a fall below $1, will remain firmly in focus.