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Point of Focus
- XRP lost support at its 200-day EMA at $1.354.
- A daily close below this moving average may trigger a 26% drop.
- Former Ripple CTO David Schwartz sparked renewed long-term optimism.
XRP’s (XRP) long-term valuation debate has returned just as its short-term price outlook begins to deteriorate.
The token traded around $1.344 on Friday, Sept. 11, 2026, falling by more than 5% after closing below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) earlier in the week.
Meanwhile, comments from former Ripple chief technology officer David Schwartz have revived speculation that XRP could eventually overtake Bitcoin (XRP) by market capitalization.
The contrast is stark: Technical indicators warn of a possible retest of $1, while long-term valuation models place XRP between $15 and $50 under an ambitious “flippening” scenario.
XRP loses key 200-Day EMA
XRP’s close below the 200-day EMA at $1.354 has created an immediate technical obstacle. The indicator now acts as resistance and could limit recovery attempts unless buyers reclaim it with convincing volume.
Momentum readings offer little evidence of an imminent breakout. The relative strength index (RSI) sits near 51, reflecting broadly balanced buying and selling pressure after previously reaching overbought territory.
The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator remains negative, with the MACD line below its signal line. Although the negative histogram is contracting slightly, the setup still points to fading bullish momentum following XRP’s recent spike.
A decisive recovery above $1.354 could improve the outlook and potentially clear a path toward the major horizontal resistance area around $1.90.
Could XRP’s price retest $1?
For now, the downside levels carry greater urgency.
Immediate support sits around $1.30, followed by the 50-day EMA at $1.270 and the 100-day EMA at $1.245.
Remaining above those moving averages preserves an underlying constructive bias despite the recent weakness.
However, a daily close below that EMA cluster could expose XRP’s next major structural support near $1. A decline to that level would represent a drop of 26% from Friday’s price.
Schwartz revives XRP’s flippening debate
Against that cautious technical backdrop, Schwartz said XRP overtaking Bitcoin’s market capitalization would more likely result from XRP’s adoption and growth than from Bitcoin collapsing.
Angie asked "David in your humble opinion, do you believe XRP could actually flip Bitcoin?" pic.twitter.com/InhjVrM6Gv
— Vet (@Vet_X0) September 9, 2026
Analyst Zach Rector calculated that matching a $1.5-trillion Bitcoin valuation would price XRP at $23.91 based on its circulating supply of around 62 billion tokens. Using XRP’s full 100-billion supply produces a more conservative estimate of $15.
Will XRP Flip BTC?https://t.co/Dv7Yjyrlpv pic.twitter.com/7qqTVdPN1b
— Zach Rector (@ZachRector7) September 9, 2026
At a $2.5-trillion valuation, those estimates rise to nearly $40 and $25, respectively. Rector’s more bullish model places XRP above $50 if Bitcoin eventually reaches a market capitalization between $3 trillion and $5 trillion.
Such projections remain hypothetical and require extraordinary capital inflows. Schwartz provided no timeline, leaving XRP traders caught between an enticing long-term valuation narrative and a chart that currently threatens further losses.
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