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XRP (XRP) has entered one of the rarest technical conditions in its trading history, reviving comparisons with the 2022 bottom that preceded an eventual 1,100% rally.
The token’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) fell to 29.6 in June, with slipping below the 30 threshold generally being associated with oversold market conditions. This is only the second time XRP’s weekly RSI has entered that territory in more than a decade of price data.
However, the historical comparison comes with an important qualification. Although the first signal marked XRP’s 2022 bottom near $0.29, the subsequent rally did not begin immediately. XRP traded sideways for more than two years before surging following the November 2024 US presidential election.
This time, the token is showing tentative signs of a recovery around $1.10. But weakening network activity, limited exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand, and major resistance at $1.18 suggest that an oversold reading alone will not be enough to produce another exponential rally.
The first constructive development is XRP’s break above the descending trend line that had controlled its price since July 2025.
That trend began after XRP reached approximately $3.65 before losing around two-thirds of its value. The line subsequently rejected recovery attempts in October 2025 and January, May, and June 2026. Breaking it, therefore, represents a meaningful change in XRP’s short-term structure.
Yet it is not confirmation of a broader reversal.
XRP remains close to its lowest price zone since November 2024, while the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) continues to cap recovery attempts. More importantly, the token is approaching a supply zone between $1.12 and $1.18, formed around its February lows.
A daily close above $1.18 would strengthen the breakout and open a possible move toward $1.26. Failure to clear that area would leave XRP inside its wider bearish structure despite the broken diagonal trend line.
On the downside, $1 remains the critical support. A decisive loss of parity could expose XRP to deeper targets around $0.67 and $0.47.
XRP’s previous weekly oversold signal is attracting attention because it coincided with the 2022 bear-market bottom. From that low, the token eventually climbed more than 1,100%.
Repeating that performance from around $1.10 would push XRP toward $13. However, today’s larger circulating supply makes such a move considerably harder.
With approximately 69.4 billion XRP in circulation, a price of $10 would already imply a market capitalization of $625 billion. At $13, XRP would approach an $800 billion valuation, exceeding Ether’s (ETH) historical peak and entering territory previously occupied only by Bitcoin (BTC).
The signal may be more useful for identifying seller exhaustion than projecting an identical percentage gain.
XRP’s technical picture is also running ahead of its underlying demand.
Only 2,130 new XRP Ledger wallets were created on July 11, reportedly the lowest daily total since November 2024. ETF demand has also weakened sharply, with monthly inflows falling from $131.94 million in May to $59 million in June and virtually nothing so far in July.
What is coming for XRP will be massive
I love the pattern formation pic.twitter.com/T7ZIHRmtzJ
— MikybullCrypto (@MikybullCrypto) July 14, 2026
Meanwhile, progress on the CLARITY Act remains uncertain, limiting the immediate regulatory catalyst for institutional adoption.
The weekly RSI signal and trend-line break give XRP bulls their strongest setup in months. Nevertheless, reclaiming $1.18 and subsequently $1.26 would provide far more convincing evidence of a reversal than the historical 1,100% comparison alone.
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