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XRP (XRP) is holding above an important support zone near $1.09, but conflicting momentum indicators and persistent resistance from major moving averages (MAs) suggest the cryptocurrency has yet to establish a convincing recovery.
The token trades close to $1.10 on Monday after posting a modest rebound during the previous week. Although buyers continue to defend the lower end of its recent range, XRP remains below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs).
This structure keeps the broader technical outlook bearish, even as selling pressure appears to be easing.
For now, price action points toward consolidation rather than a decisive trend. XRP’s ability to remain above $1.07-$1.09 could determine whether it challenges nearby resistance or returns to the psychologically important $1 level.
The most immediate obstacle is the 50-day EMA near $1.14. Above that, the 100-day EMA at approximately $1.23 and horizontal resistance around $1.30 represent progressively stronger barriers.
XRP’s 200-day EMA remains much higher, near $1.44, illustrating the scale of the decline and the work required to restore a constructive medium-term trend. Until the token reclaims at least the $1.14-$1.17 region with stronger trading volume, rebounds are likely to encounter overhead supply.
Shorter-term signals are similarly inconclusive. XRP has recently traded below hourly MAs clustered around $1.09-$1.10, while the Ichimoku Kijun near $1.0988 has acted as immediate resistance.
The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) remains marginally positive, suggesting downside momentum is weakening.
However, a relative strength index (RSI) just below 50 shows that buyers have not secured control. Other indicators are divided: The Commodity Channel Index and Bull/Bear Power favor buyers, while the Stochastic RSI continues to flash a sell signal.
The mixed signals support a base case in which XRP continues moving between $1.0721 and $1.1119 over the next several sessions. This narrow range reflects a market in which neither side has enough conviction to force a sustained breakout.
A move above $1.11 would be an encouraging first step, but XRP would still need to clear the 50-day EMA near $1.14 and then reclaim $1.15-$1.17 with convincing volume. Such a move could open the way toward $1.23 and potentially $1.30.
Conversely, losing $1.07 would expose the $1.02-$1.04 area. A deeper breakdown would bring $0.99-$1.00 back into focus and reinforce the broader descending structure.
The $1 level is both a technical and psychological threshold, meaning volatility could increase sharply if it is tested.
XRP’s subdued technical picture contrasts with improving regulatory and institutional developments. Ripple has reportedly secured a comprehensive crypto-asset service provider license in Luxembourg, expanding its ability to provide regulated services across the European Economic Area under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets framework.
XRP spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also recorded a net inflow of $6.78 million, reversing earlier withdrawals. While the amount is not large enough to transform market momentum, it indicates that institutional demand has not disappeared entirely.
Meanwhile, validator support for an XRP Ledger protocol upgrade has reportedly surpassed the required 80% threshold. These developments strengthen XRP’s longer-term fundamental narrative, but traders have yet to translate that optimism into sustained buying.
The near-term outlook, therefore, remains cautiously neutral. Defending $1.07-$1.09 would preserve the possibility of a recovery, but only a high-volume move above $1.14-$1.17 would meaningfully weaken the current bearish structure.
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