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XRP (XRP) has recovered steadily from its late-June lows, but technical indicators show the latest rebound does not yet signal the start of a sustained bull market.
While improving momentum, rising trading activity, and renewed investor confidence have helped the token stabilize above the $1.10 level, XRP still faces a dense cluster of resistance that has repeatedly capped every recovery attempt in recent months.
The token remains trapped below key moving averages (MAs) and inside a broader descending channel that has defined price action for much of the year. Until buyers can overcome those barriers, analysts argue that the current advance should be viewed as a countertrend rally rather than the beginning of a long-term breakout.
The daily chart shows that XRP has rebounded convincingly from the $1.02-$1.05 demand zone, where buyers stepped in following June’s correction.
However, the broader structure still favors sellers.
The token continues to trade within a well-defined descending channel, with the upper boundary converging around the $1.24-$1.29 area alongside the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA). This combination creates a powerful resistance cluster that buyers must overcome before the market can begin talking about a genuine trend reversal.
Technical analysts often pay close attention to areas where multiple resistance indicators align because they tend to attract increased selling activity. In XRP’s case, the descending channel, the 100-day EMA, and previous price rejection zones all converge within the same region.
If XRP breaks decisively above this resistance, the next target would likely become the 200-day EMA near $1.44, potentially shifting longer-term sentiment back in favor of the bulls.
Failure to clear the area, however, would reinforce the prevailing bearish structure and increase the likelihood of another retreat toward the $1.05 support zone.
The shorter-term picture is more encouraging.
On the four-hour chart, XRP has successfully reclaimed the descending trendline that limited price action throughout most of July. The breakout suggests buyers have regained some control after weeks of persistent selling pressure.
The price is now consolidating just below the important $1.16-$1.18 resistance band.
This zone has rejected multiple breakout attempts during recent weeks, making it the first obstacle bulls must overcome before challenging the larger daily resistance around $1.24.
Momentum indicators also paint a cautiously optimistic picture.
The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) remains marginally positive, suggesting buying momentum continues to outweigh selling pressure. Meanwhile, the relative strength index (RSI) is hovering around neutral levels, indicating there is still room for further upside without immediately entering overbought territory.
Even so, XRP continues trading below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day MAs, underscoring that the broader trend has not yet turned bullish.
MAs often serve as dynamic support and resistance during prolonged trends, and XRP currently sits beneath all of its major long-term averages.
The nearest obstacle remains the 50-day EMA around $1.14, followed by the 100-day EMA near $1.23. Above those sits the psychologically important $1.30 level before the 200-day EMA; around $1.44 comes into focus.
Just to be clear, this signal has now flashed only 4 times in $XRP's entire history of data.
These are not the kind of signs to be ignoring; 2017 was trigger. 2020 was a trigger. 2022 was a trigger. 2026 will likely be a trigger. https://t.co/iBfT3o2poO pic.twitter.com/xfmayVo3XZ
— 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) July 23, 2026
Only after reclaiming these levels would XRP begin to invalidate the broader bearish market structure that has persisted since the first half of the year.
On the downside, the $1.00-$1.05 region remains the most important support area. As long as buyers defend this range, the recovery remains technically intact despite repeated resistance.
Until XRP establishes sustained acceptance above the $1.24-$1.29 resistance cluster, every rally risks becoming another temporary recovery inside a larger downtrend. Breaking that ceiling, not simply approaching it, will likely determine whether XRP is finally ready to begin its next major bull run.
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