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XRP (XRP) is entering a pivotal week with bulls defending the psychologically important $1 level despite sustained selling pressure throughout June.
The token has fallen by about 19% over the past month and nearly 9% over the last seven days, yet institutional demand continues to paint a different picture from price action.
While spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have extended their streak of weekly inflows, the derivatives market has grown far larger than the cash market, with futures turnover exceeding $1.2 billion in the past 24 hours.
The divergence highlights a market caught between long-term accumulation and short-term speculation. ETF investors continue adding exposure, while leveraged traders dominate price discovery, leaving XRP vulnerable to sharp swings around key technical levels.
One of the most notable trends surrounding XRP remains the resilience of institutional flows.
According to SoSoValue data, US spot XRP ETFs attracted another $15.6 million in net inflows on June 26, extending a seven-week streak of positive flows totaling nearly $145 million. That contrasts sharply with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), which have experienced billions of dollars in cumulative ETF outflows over the same period.
The trend suggests institutional investors remain willing to accumulate XRP even as the token trades near multi-month lows.
However, ETF demand alone has not been enough to reverse the broader downtrend. XRP continues to trade around $1.04-$1.05, well below its July 2025 all-time high of $3.65 and more than 50% lower than levels seen a year ago.
The current setup leaves $1 as the most important technical support. Losing that level could expose XRP to further declines toward $0.85, while reclaiming resistance at $1.12 and later $1.27 would likely be required before traders begin calling for a sustained recovery.
Although ETF inflows remain encouraging, derivatives activity is having a much greater influence on XRP’s short-term price action.
CoinGlass data shows $1.29 billion in XRP futures volume over the past 24 hours, compared with just $190.7 million in spot trading. In other words, futures turnover is nearly seven times larger than activity in the underlying cash market.
Open interest also remains elevated at $2.37 billion, substantially exceeding the $1.47 billion of cumulative inflows that US XRP ETFs have attracted since launch.
This imbalance illustrates where price discovery is currently taking place.
While ETF investors gradually accumulate exposure, leveraged traders continue driving volatility. Even relatively modest liquidations or shifts in positioning can therefore trigger outsized price movements, particularly around major support levels.
Recent trading has already reflected that dynamic. XRP briefly fell toward $1.01 before recovering, while futures liquidations remained relatively contained at around $1.5 million, suggesting positioning has become less crowded than during previous rallies.
Despite weak price performance, blockchain activity has begun showing signs of improvement.
According to analyst Ali Martinez, daily active XRP addresses have increased from about 23,000 in mid-June to nearly 39,500 over the past two weeks. Rising active addresses typically indicate greater network participation, although they do not necessarily translate into immediate price appreciation.
Network activity on $XRP has surged over the past two weeks.
Daily active addresses have climbed from 23,000 on June 14 to nearly 39,500 today, signaling growing on-chain participation. pic.twitter.com/lqX9oo3AsS
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) June 28, 2026
Technical indicators are also beginning to attract attention.
Martinez noted that the Tom DeMark Sequential indicator has flashed a “9” buy signal on the daily time frame, a pattern that sometimes precedes short-term relief rallies. At the same time, XRP has formed a Morning Star Doji formation, another reversal pattern closely monitored by technical analysts.
Neither signal guarantees a trend reversal, but together they suggest selling momentum may be slowing after weeks of sustained declines.
If buyers regain control and trading volume strengthens, analysts are increasingly watching the $1.20-$1.30 region as the next significant recovery zone.
The coming sessions may ultimately depend less on ETF inflows than on how leveraged traders reposition.
XRP derivatives have undergone a sizeable deleveraging phase, with funding rates turning negative and open interest declining from recent highs as long positions were flushed from the market. Such resets often reduce speculative excess and can create healthier conditions for a rebound if spot demand remains intact.
At the same time, Binance exchange reserves have remained relatively stable, suggesting long-term holders are not rushing to move coins onto exchanges for immediate selling.
For now, XRP sits at the intersection of two opposing forces. Institutional investors continue allocating capital through ETFs, while derivatives traders dominate short-term price movements.
As long as the token holds above $1, the market retains the potential for a relief rally toward $1.30. But a decisive break below that psychological threshold could quickly shift sentiment back toward the $0.85 support zone.
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