Point of Focus

• XRP is trading around $1.04-$1.05, with the $1.00 level emerging as the most important near-term support.
• The token continues to trade within a long-term descending channel.
• Delays surrounding the CLARITY Act have weakened investor sentiment.

XRP (XRP) is approaching a pivotal technical moment as the token struggles to hold above the psychologically important $1.00 level.

Trading around $1.04 after falling by nearly 2% over the past 24 hours and more than 5% over the past week, the cryptocurrency remains under pressure from a combination of macro headwinds, fading regulatory optimism, and persistent technical weakness.

Although Ripple continues to expand its global payments business and institutional footprint, traders have become increasingly focused on slowing exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, weak spot demand, and a bearish chart structure that threatens to send XRP toward significantly lower levels if key support fails.

XRP’s technical structure remains firmly bearish

From a chart perspective, XRP continues to trade inside a long-term descending channel, with sellers maintaining control across higher timeframes.

The token recently broke below the important $1.11-$1.15 support zone and is now attempting to stabilize around $1.04-$1.05, leaving the market just above the critical $1.00 psychological level.

Technical indicators offer little encouragement for bulls. The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, signaling continued downside momentum, while the relative strength index (RSI) sits near 36, indicating weak momentum without yet reaching deeply oversold conditions.

Meanwhile, the Williams %R oscillator suggests XRP is approaching oversold territory, which could support a short-term relief bounce without necessarily changing the broader trend.

The next major resistance sits near $1.30, where the 100-day moving average (MA) aligns with the upper boundary of the descending channel. Until XRP reclaims that area, the prevailing trend continues to favor sellers.

If the current support zone fails, analysts see limited buying interest before the $0.80 region, where the lower boundary of the channel converges with previous support.

Slowing ETF demand and regulatory uncertainty weigh on sentiment

Fundamental catalysts have also become less supportive.

While US spot XRP ETFs have now recorded eight consecutive weeks of net inflows, institutional demand has noticeably cooled. Monthly inflows reportedly fell from $132 million in May to just $47 million in June, suggesting that institutional buying has not been strong enough to offset broader market weakness.

At the same time, optimism surrounding US crypto regulation has faded.

Earlier progress on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act had strengthened expectations that XRP could benefit from clearer regulatory treatment. However, political disagreements and concerns raised by federal agencies have slowed the legislative process, reducing investor confidence that regulatory clarity will arrive anytime soon.

The broader cryptocurrency market has also remained under pressure as investors continue reducing exposure to higher-risk assets amid persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and subdued capital inflows into digital asset investment products.

Ripple’s utility debate and July supply risks stay in focus

Another factor weighing on sentiment is the ongoing debate over XRP’s long-term value capture.

Ripple executives recently acknowledged that digital assets, including XRP, currently account for only a very small portion of the trillions of dollars processed annually across Ripple’s broader payments infrastructure. While Ripple continues expanding its enterprise business, some investors question how quickly that growth will translate into sustained onchain demand for XRP itself.

Additional supply concerns are also approaching.

Ripple’s scheduled 1-billion-XRP escrow release in early July is once again drawing attention, even though the company routinely relocks a significant portion of those tokens each month. Investors are also closely watching discussions surrounding a potential Ripple initial public offering, with some analysts suggesting institutional investors could eventually favor regulated equity exposure over direct XRP holdings.

Against Bitcoin (BTC), XRP also continues to underperform. The XRP/BTC pair remains trapped inside its own descending channel, with support around 1,700 sats becoming increasingly important. A breakdown below that level could expose the pair to a move toward 1,500 sats, reinforcing the broader bearish outlook.

For now, the battle around $1.00 represents the market’s defining level. A successful defense could trigger a short-term recovery toward the $1.20-$1.30 area. However, a decisive break below support would likely confirm the current downtrend and increase the probability of a deeper correction toward $0.88 and potentially $0.80 in the weeks ahead.