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Point of Focus
- XRP fell roughly 8% toward $1.50 after briefly breaking above $1.60.
- US spot XRP ETFs have logged net inflows for 11 consecutive weeks.
- Rising futures exposure may have amplified the reversal.
XRP’s rally reversed sharply on Sept. 24, 2026. with the token falling roughly 8% toward $1.50 after briefly trading above $1.60.
The decline came despite continued demand for US spot XRP exchange-traded funds, which attracted another $18.04 million on Sept. 23.
The contrast illustrates a limit of ETF flow data: fund purchases can support demand without determining the price across the entire XRP market.
After a rapid advance, selling by spot holders and the closing of leveraged positions can outweigh a positive day for ETFs.
Why ETF inflows did not stop the drop
Spot XRP ETFs have recorded net inflows in 11 successive weeks since mid-July, counting the current week through Sept. 23, according to CoinGlassdata.
Cumulative net inflows have reached about $1.75 billion. Bitwise’s fund accounted for approximately $11.5 million of Sept. 23 inflow, while Franklin Templeton’s drew about $6.50 million.
Those numbers show persistent fund demand, but the scale matters. Most of the weekly inflows in the streak ranged from $1 million to $20 million. Buyers of ETFs represent only part of a market in which XRP also trades directly on exchanges and through derivatives.
The price move followed XRP’s push above $1.60 and a reported high around $1.66. Once it slipped back below the breakout level, traders who had bought the rise had reason to close positions. That sequence is consistent with profit-taking and a leveraged pullback, though ETF flow figures alone cannot establish exactly which sellers drove the decline.
Futures activity makes the pullback more important
Before the reversal, XRP futures open interest on Binance had risen toward $600 million, above its 180-day moving average near $445 million.
interpreted the increase, alongside positive funding rates, as a return of speculative interest.
Open interest measures outstanding contracts, not purchases of XRP itself. Rising open interest during a rally can signal conviction, but it also means more positions may need to close if price turns.
A falling market can force leveraged long traders to exit, adding to downward pressure.
That does not prove liquidations caused the entire 8% decline. It does explain why a reversal can accelerate even while ETFs continue drawing capital. The same derivatives activity that strengthens an advance can make a failed breakout more volatile.
Underwater holders meet a weak October record
One potentially supportive measure comes from Santiment. Its 365-day market-value-to-realized-value ratio for XRP stood negative near 12%, indicating that the average coin moved over that period was valued below its estimated cost basis. Holders sitting on losses may have less incentive to take profits.
That is a measure of past transactions, however, not a floor under the price. Loss-making holders can still sell, and new buyers can retreat when momentum breaks. XRP’s Coinbase premium over Binance had narrowed to about 0.0055%, offering little evidence of a strong US spot-buying premium at that point.
October adds a historical test. XRP finished the month lower in eight of the past 13 years, with an average October negative return of 5.1%. That record cannot predict this year’s result.
For now, the question is whether spot buyers return after the failed move above $1.60. The ETF streak shows sustained interest in the funds; XRP’s latest decline shows that interest has yet to absorb all the selling in the broader market.
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