Share
XRP (XRP) is confronting a dangerous combination of weakening technical support, fading regulatory optimism, and uncertainty surrounding the US Federal Reserve’s next policy decision.
The token fell from $1.11 to near $1.05 on July 28, extending its weekly decline to almost 8%. The move pushed XRP beneath a closely watched support level and left the psychologically important $1 threshold increasingly exposed.
The sell-off came after the US Senate sidelined the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act ahead of its August recess. At the same time, investors were reducing their exposure to speculative assets before the Federal Reserve’s July 29 interest-rate decision.
Together, these pressures have transformed XRP’s brief July recovery into another test of whether buyers can defend the token from a deeper correction.
XRP climbed to $1.15 earlier in July after reports suggested US President Donald Trump had accepted a compromise concerning the CLARITY Act’s disputed ethics provision.
Polymarket traders briefly raised the probability of Senate passage in 2026 to 43%.
Probability for Clarity Act signed into law in 2026 remains low.
In my opinion it will eventually be signed into law!
Regulatory clarity codified into law supports innovation and protects it. The whole industry demands it. https://t.co/cRkAjYywlI pic.twitter.com/SHqLbqFu3D
— Vet (@Vet_X0) July 28, 2026
That optimism quickly faded when senators prioritized federal nominations and a Russia sanctions bill. With the chamber expected to begin its August recess around Aug. 7, lawmakers now have little time to advance the legislation.
The delay matters particularly for XRP because the bill could establish clearer rules distinguishing digital commodities from securities. Such legal certainty could encourage banks, custodians, and exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers to develop XRP-related products.
Standard Chartered’s conditional $8 XRP forecast, for example, depended partly on the legislation passing and spot XRP ETFs attracting between $4 billion and $8 billion. Without regulatory progress, that bullish scenario remains highly speculative.
XRP’s decline accelerated after it lost $1.08 and then broke beneath the neckline of a double-top pattern near $1.054. The formation developed following two unsuccessful attempts to overcome resistance around $1.17.
The breakdown exposes support between $1.01 and $1.03, followed by the psychological $1 level. Fibonacci projections place another downside target near $0.971.
Several indicators reinforce the bearish outlook. XRP’s 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) remains below its 200-day moving average (MA), maintaining the “death cross” that has accompanied its broader decline from the 2025 peak.
The four-hour moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) also remains negative, while XRP closed beneath its lower Bollinger Band near $1.054.
Liquidations added momentum to the decline as the price swept through leveraged positions around $1.095 and $1.08. Liquidity concentrations near $1.075 and $1.097 could now become resistance during any recovery.
The four-hour relative strength index (RSI) dropped to 25.93, placing XRP in oversold territory. This creates the conditions for a short-term relief bounce, particularly if buyers continue defending the $1.043-$1.05 region.
However, an oversold reading does not confirm that XRP has reached a durable bottom. The token would need to reclaim $1.054 before overcoming resistance at $1.075, $1.098, and $1.11.
A recovery above the Bollinger Band midpoint near $1.098 would weaken the immediate bearish setup. Until then, rebounds may attract sellers attempting to exit at better prices.
The Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates between 3.50% and 3.75%, but the tone of its statement could prove more important than the decision itself.
A dovish signal or indication of possible September cuts could lift crypto markets and return XRP toward $1.10-$1.12. A hawkish hold, however, could intensify the sell-off.
If XRP closes decisively below $1.043, the probability of a decline toward $1 and potentially $0.97 would rise substantially. With the CLARITY Act stalled and technical momentum still bearish, XRP’s next recovery may depend more on the Fed than on Ripple-specific developments.
Share
preferred on
