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XRP (XRP) is attempting to build bullish momentum after Ripple secured full authorization under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework, a milestone that strengthens the company’s position as one of the region’s most regulated digital asset infrastructure providers.
While the token’s latest rally has largely tracked Bitcoin’s (BTC) broader recovery, traders increasingly see Ripple’s regulatory progress as a fundamental catalyst that could support XRP over the medium term.
XRP climbed back above $1.13-$1.15 this week as improving macro sentiment lifted the entire cryptocurrency market. Softer-than-expected US economic data reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, while spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) returned to net inflows after a prolonged period of outflows, reviving risk appetite across digital assets.
Ripple confirmed it has received its full crypto asset service provider (CASP) license from Luxembourg’s financial regulator, completing its compliance with Europe’s MiCA framework.
The approval allows Ripple to provide regulated crypto payment services, custody infrastructure, and enterprise blockchain solutions across all 30 countries in the European Economic Area through a single regulatory passport. Instead of obtaining licenses country by country, Ripple can now expand throughout Europe under one unified framework.
It’s official: Ripple has received its EU CASP license. We are now fully MiCA-compliant and ready to meet growing European crypto demand https://t.co/I9GRgvfGzH
— Ripple (@Ripple) July 6, 2026
For institutional investors, banks, and payment providers, regulatory clarity remains one of the biggest barriers to crypto adoption. Ripple’s authorization significantly reduces that uncertainty and positions the company as one of the few digital asset firms capable of serving European financial institutions under a fully regulated regime.
The announcement also reinforces Ripple’s long-term strategy following its legal victories in the US. The company now holds more than 75 regulatory licenses worldwide, further strengthening its reputation among institutions seeking compliant blockchain infrastructure.
Although the MiCA license does not directly change XRP’s tokenomics, investors often view Ripple’s business expansion as a positive signal for the broader XRP ecosystem, particularly as cross-border payment activity continues to grow.
Institutional demand also remains supportive. US spot XRP ETFs have now recorded nine consecutive weeks of net inflows, adding another $17.2 million during the latest reporting period. That steady accumulation suggests institutional interest has remained intact despite XRP’s volatile price action throughout recent months.
Onchain data provides another encouraging development for XRP holders.
CryptoQuant’s Binance Scarcity Index recently climbed to 0.77, its highest reading in more than two years. The indicator measures how much XRP remains available for sale on Binance relative to historical levels. Higher readings generally indicate declining exchange balances and reduced immediate selling pressure.
Exchange reserve data tells a similar story.
Since November 2024, Binance’s XRP reserves have fallen from 3.27 billion tokens to around 2.6 billion, representing a decline of nearly 650 million XRP, or about 20%. The pace of withdrawals accelerated in May and June, coinciding with the latest recovery in price.
A shrinking exchange supply alone does not guarantee higher prices, but it can amplify upside moves if fresh demand enters the market.
Meanwhile, derivatives positioning suggests bearish traders may have already exhausted much of their selling pressure. Funding rates turned sharply negative as XRP approached the psychologically important $1.00 level in late June, indicating traders aggressively opened short positions near local lows. The subsequent rebound above $1.10 likely forced many of those positions to close, creating a classic short squeeze.
Funding rates have since normalized without reaching excessively bullish levels, suggesting leverage has reset while avoiding signs of market euphoria.
Despite improving fundamentals, XRP still faces several technical hurdles before confirming a sustained uptrend.
The first level traders are watching sits around $1.14-$1.15, which recently flipped from resistance into support. Holding above this zone would keep the current recovery intact.
The next major test lies at $1.20. A convincing daily close above that resistance could open the door toward the previous breakdown region between $1.35 and $1.40, representing roughly 20% upside from current prices.
Technical indicators have identified $1.40 and $1.65 as longer-term breakout levels that could trigger stronger bullish momentum if buyers regain control.
On the downside, the recovery becomes increasingly vulnerable if XRP falls back below $1.05. A break beneath the $1.00 psychological support would invalidate much of the current bullish structure and could expose the token to deeper losses.
For now, XRP appears to be benefiting from a rare combination of supportive macro conditions, improving institutional adoption, favorable regulatory developments, and declining exchange supply.
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