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Point of Focus
- XRP open interest fell by 23% to $871 million.
- A developing bull flag puts $1.70 in focus, with $2 a potential target if resistance breaks.
- The 50-day and 200-day EMAs are converging.
XRP (XRP) faces a breakout test as a reported 23% decline in open interest points to reduced derivatives exposure, while daily chart patterns suggest a possible recovery toward $1.70.
The competing signals leave traders assessing whether the pullback has cleared speculative excess or weakened buying conviction.
A developing bullish flag offers an upside setup, but confirmation depends on price breaking resistance and attracting sustained demand.
Falling open interest signals reduced exposure
The data set tracking the decline puts XRP open interest at $871 million, down from $1.128 billion in late August, a $257 million reduction in outstanding contracts.
Binance’s figure fell from $558 million to $423 million, while Bybit declined from $379 million to $291 million. OKX recorded a smaller retreat, from $125 million to $107 million.
Alongside XRP’s retreat from around $1.50, the contraction is consistent with traders closing positions or experiencing liquidations. However, dollar-denominated open interest also changes with price, so the decline cannot establish how much leverage traders removed.
Nor does falling open interest independently predict further losses. It can accompany weakening participation or a reset that leaves fewer vulnerable positions outstanding.
Bull flag puts $1.70 in focus
The daily chart analysis identifies a developing bullish flag, with XRP approaching the upper boundary of a descending consolidation channel.
A decisive close above that boundary would strengthen the recovery case and bring the previous $1.70 high into focus. Clearing that level could open a path toward $2, although neither target constitutes a confirmed outcome.
The narrowing gap between the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) also deserves attention. A bullish crossover would require the shorter average to move above the longer one; convergence alone does not confirm the signal.
Failure to escape the channel would leave the breakout thesis unproven.
Spot demand must support the recovery
XRP exchange reserves of approximately 1.7 billion XRP, a seven-year low, suggest less inventory held on tracked trading platforms. That could constrain available supply but does not guarantee buying pressure.
Meanwhile, reported monthly ETF inflows of $41 million coexist with a $5.15-million daily outflow, illustrating uneven demand.
Great Post @PeterLbrandt good to see eye's being brought to crypto & #XRPUSD.
In Fact there is on the daily TF an iH&S's with a $2.42 Target. [Chart 1]
Our take on the 2x Weekly is at $19.35, our method takes log scaled geometry into account. [Chart 2]
What do you think?… https://t.co/PMflEBThQj pic.twitter.com/kJ6pGWZQRV
— Francis Hunt – The Market Sniper, CMT (MBA) (@themarketsniper) September 22, 2026
For XRP, the stronger bullish combination would be a confirmed price breakout and expanding spot participation.
Open-interest contraction alone cannot establish that buyers have regained control.
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