Points of Focus

• XRP is testing a critical support zone near $1.04-$1.17.
• Onchain activity has weakened significantly, as whale transactions have dropped.
• The technical picture remains bearish, with XRP trading below long-term resistance.

The token has slipped to around $1.04 after losing more than 11% over the past week, leaving it more than 50% below its July 2025 all-time high. Unless buyers quickly reclaim key resistance levels, XRP could be heading toward another 30% decline, with chart projections pointing to the $0.73-$0.87 range.

However, not everyone sees the current weakness as the start of a prolonged bear market.

While XRP may still have room to fall, the current correction could ultimately establish the foundation for the next major bull cycle.

Whale activity and retail interest continue to fade

One of the clearest warning signs comes from XRP’s onchain data.

According to Santiment, whale transactions exceeding $100,000 have collapsed to around 90, compared with nearly 900 recorded during February’s peak. The sharp decline suggests that large investors are becoming increasingly inactive rather than stepping in to buy the dip.

The largest XRP holders have been trimming their positions since late May instead of accumulating during the correction.

Retail participation has weakened as well.

XRP’s social dominance, a measure of how frequently the asset is discussed across crypto social media, has fallen to 0.26%, well below the spikes recorded in March and May. Those earlier bursts of attention failed to halt the broader downtrend, and the subsequent decline in online engagement suggests fresh retail demand remains limited.

The combination of falling whale activity and declining social interest often reflects distribution rather than accumulation, removing two of the catalysts that typically support meaningful price recoveries.

Technical breakdown leaves little support below current levels

The technical picture has deteriorated alongside the weakening onchain metrics.

XRP has repeatedly failed to break above a descending resistance line extending from its $3.66 record high, with sellers rejecting every recovery attempt over the past year. The asset has also broken below a symmetrical triangle formation, a pattern that projects a measured downside target near $0.73.

Equally concerning is the loss of the important 0.786 Fibonacci retracement around $1.17.

Below this level, there is relatively little structural support before the market reaches the $0.73 area. A weekly close beneath current levels would strengthen the bearish case and increase the probability of another significant decline.

Momentum indicators also favor sellers.

The weekly relative strength index (RSI) has broken the ascending trendline that had supported the indicator since 2022. After briefly retesting that line earlier this year, RSI has fallen toward 28, its lowest reading since the 2022 bear market.

Although deeply oversold RSI readings can sometimes precede relief rallies, they also confirm that bearish momentum currently dominates the broader trend.

Is another low near?

Despite the bearish setup, several analysts believe XRP may be approaching an important long-term accumulation zone rather than entering a fresh collapse.

Technical analyst ChartNerd argues the next major support lies between $0.84 and $0.87, where XRP’s long-term Gaussian Channel intersects with another key Fibonacci retracement. Historically, that area has marked the transition between bear markets and new bullish cycles.

How close can we get? 😂 $XRP https://t.co/Szu3VnaO7O pic.twitter.com/yZZfi5uy2c

— 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) June 26, 2026

According to the analyst, previous XRP rallies in 2017, 2021, and 2024 all began after the price returned to the Gaussian Channel’s middle regression band, which now sits near the same region.

Historical comparisons also provide some perspective.

Previous XRP bear markets erased between 85% and 96% of the asset’s value and lasted between 400 and nearly 800 days. The current correction, while painful, has so far produced a 69% drawdown over about 11 months, making it less severe than prior cycles.

CryptoQuant’s derivatives data also suggests the recent decline has not been driven by panic selling. The platform’s Binance Perpetual-Spot Volume Imbalance remains close to neutral, indicating leverage has largely normalized following the strong rallies seen earlier this year.

Meanwhile, analyst Dark Defender believes XRP may be completing the final wave of its current correction, noting that the weekly RSI is displaying a rare double-bottom bullish divergence similar to the pattern that preceded the 2022 market bottom.

XRP Wave 5 is bottoming near $1.05, and they want EVERYONE out so badly.

RSI is printing a double-into-triple dip with a bullish divergence.

I am adding more XRP to my bag.
(Educational, not financial advice.) pic.twitter.com/recNS0k5te

— Dark Defender (@DefendDark) June 24, 2026

For now, the market remains at a crossroads. If XRP loses support around $1 and continues toward the $0.84-$0.87 region, another wave of selling could emerge. Yet if history repeats itself, that same zone could eventually become the launching pad for XRP’s next bull market.