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Point of Focus
- XRP is trading near the critical $1 support level.
- A breakdown may potentially open the path toward $0.90-$0.92.
- The token remains below its major moving averages.
XRP (XRP) is approaching a decisive technical test after falling to $1.03 on Friday, with weaker institutional demand, rising derivatives exposure, and regulatory uncertainty reinforcing its bearish short-term structure.
The token remains only slightly above the psychologically important $1 support level, where a sustained breakdown could accelerate losses.
Technical indicators favor sellers
XRP trades below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), positioned at $1.11, $1.19, and $1.38, respectively. This alignment shows that sellers retain control across short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes.
The relative strength index (RSI) stands at 36, placing XRP near oversold territory but not yet producing a convincing reversal signal.
The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator also remains below zero, confirming negative momentum.
XRP has already fallen beneath its former $1.05 support, turning that level into immediate resistance. A decisive break below $1 could expose the descending triangle’s projected target between $0.90 and $0.92. Conversely, reclaiming $1.05 would be the first step toward stabilization, while a move above $1.11 could weaken the current bearish thesis.
ETF outflow signals weaker demand
US spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a $3.58-million net outflow on Aug. 5, ending a positive streak that had lasted since July 8. Although one negative session does not establish a lasting trend, it removed a source of institutional buying pressure at a sensitive moment.
Spot cumulative volume delta across centralized exchanges dropped by more than 52%, from $235 million to $112 million.
The decline suggests aggressive buyers are becoming less active as XRP approaches critical support.
Meanwhile, Binance XRP open interest (OI) increased roughly 8% to $195 million, while perpetual cumulative volume delta became more negative. Together, those readings are consistent with growing leveraged sell-side positioning, although OI alone cannot identify the direction of every trade.
Whale activity adds uncertainty
Whales accounted for 81% of Binance XRP outflows, compared with 72% across centralized exchanges overall.
Large withdrawals can indicate accumulation or transfers into private custody, so the data does not prove that whales are selling. However, unusually concentrated activity increases uncertainty, while spot demand is weakening.
The US Senate’s decision to postpone consideration of the CLARITY Act until September has also weighed on sentiment. The legislation could clarify XRP’s regulatory treatment by defining how the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission divide digital asset oversight.
For now, the outlook remains bearish below $1.05. Holding $1 could produce a relief rebound, but a high-volume breakdown would place $0.90-$0.92 firmly in focus.
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