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Point of Focus
- XRP is holding the critical $1.30 support, with the EMAs providing further protection below.
- XRP futures open interest has fallen to 2.12 billion XRP.
- The $1.35-$1.36 200-day EMA remains the key resistance.
XRP (XRP) is clinging to the crucial $1.30 level, but weakening derivatives activity and fading momentum suggest bulls may struggle to turn the latest stabilization into a sustained recovery.
The token traded around $1.305 on Friday, Sept. 18, 2026, after retreating sharply from Monday’s $1.50 peak.
The pullback followed a challenging week for crypto, marked by the US Senate’s failure to advance the CLARITY Act and the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%.
While $1.30 has held so far, XRP remains caught between key moving averages (MAs) that could determine its next major move.
XRP futures open interest drops to 2.12 billion
One warning sign comes from the derivatives market.
XRP perpetual futures open interest (OI) fell to 2.12 billion XRP on Thursday from 2.25 billion, signaling that traders are reducing leveraged exposure.
The decline becomes more significant when compared with the 2.78 billion XRP recorded on Aug. 15. That represents a roughly 24% contraction from the August level.
Falling open interest alongside weak price action can indicate declining speculative demand rather than traders aggressively positioning for a rebound. Unless derivatives activity begins recovering, XRP could lack the leverage-driven momentum needed to challenge recent highs.
The macro backdrop also remains difficult. Higher US interest rates can tighten financial conditions and reduce liquidity available for risk assets, potentially limiting appetite for cryptocurrencies.
XRP bulls defend $1.30 support
Technically, XRP remains above an important support cluster.
The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) sits near $1.284, while the 100-day EMA provides additional support around $1.256.
That makes the $1.25-$1.30 region critical for bulls.
A daily close below the 50-day EMA would weaken the current structure, while a breakdown beneath the 100-day EMA could expose XRP to a deeper correction.
Momentum indicators are not providing much support either.
The relative strength index (RSI) sits around 47, close to its neutral midpoint, suggesting neither buyers nor sellers have established overwhelming control.
Meanwhile, the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) remains below zero, with a negative histogram pointing to fading bullish momentum.
Can XRP break above $1.35?
The first major obstacle to a recovery sits at $1.35-$1.36, where XRP encounters its 200-day EMA.
A sustained break above that level would strengthen the bullish case and could allow traders to turn their attention back toward $1.50.
Since August 27, price is down 4.9% while open interest has climbed from 319k to 335k BTC.
Over the past year this combination showed up 21 times. Five were followed by a 15% rally, another five by a 16% drawdown. The remaining eleven went nowhere. pic.twitter.com/aEZPT5cqej
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) September 18, 2026
Beyond there, the next major resistance zone sits around $1.90.
For now, however, XRP remains trapped between declining derivatives participation and technical support.
Holding $1.30 keeps the recovery scenario alive, but falling open interest and weak momentum suggest bulls may need a fresh catalyst before XRP can mount another meaningful breakout.
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