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XRP (XRP) trades at $1.28 on May 28, down 6.7% in the last seven days, per CoinGecko data. The token is testing the dotted horizontal support at $1.28-$1.30 that analysts identified as the critical floor below the CLARITY Act’s missed Memorial Day deadline. The low of $1.2663 is the deepest incursion into that support zone since March.
On the same day, Santiment published data confirming that XRP’s 30-day market value-to-realized value (MVRV) ratio has fallen to -47.31%, the lowest reading since December 2020, with the 365-day MVRV at -36.06%. Both are inside Santiment’s Opportunity Zone, below the threshold the platform marks as the territory where fear has historically preceded recoveries.
📉 The average XRP trader that has been active in the past 30 days is down a whopping -47% with many selling at the bottom. Historically, MVRV’s (average trading returns) will always average out to 0%, making this current time an extreme undervalued zone for $XRP. The chart shows… pic.twitter.com/a0s4ObRpQu
— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) May 26, 2026
The MVRV ratio measures the average unrealized profit or loss of all holders relative to their entry price. A 30-day MVRV of -47.31% means the average XRP trader active in the past month is carrying an unrealized loss of nearly half their invested capital. Santiment’s framework is direct: “Historically, MVRV’s (average trading returns) will always average out to 0%, making this current time an extreme undervalued zone for $XRP.”
The Santiment MVRV chart shows the last time the 30-day MVRV reached current levels was December 2020 before a rally of more than 800% over eight subsequent months. That recovery ran on different catalysts. The pattern it identifies is behavioral: When average losses reach -47%, most retail capitulation has already occurred, remaining sellers carry weaker conviction, and the asymmetry between downside risk and potential upside improves.
The 365-day MVRV at -36.06% extends that picture. Long-term holders who accumulated during XRP’s 2025-2026 recovery are also underwater, meaning capitulation is not isolated to short-term CLARITY Act chasers.
On May 26, David Schwartz, co-architect of the XRP Ledger, published a response to a widely shared post advising retail investors to buy the S&P 500 at all-time highs.
Schwartz’s reply broke the advice into three steps: buy when the price is at a record high, question mark, profit. The question mark is the missing logic. There is no explanation for how buying at peak prices produces returns. The post spread across financial Twitter and generated significant discussion.
1) Buy high.
2) ???
3) Profit.— David 'JoelKatz' Schwartz (@JoelKatz) May 26, 2026
The XRP connection Schwartz did not make explicitly, but the MVRV data makes it for him: The S&P 500 advice he critiqued is the opposite of where XRP stands. The S&P 500 has staged a $6-trillion rally over 10 days, approaching all-time highs. XRP is 65% below its August 2025 all-time high (ATH) of $3.84, with the average short-term holder carrying a 47% loss.
Schwartz still holds over 1 million XRP and has said publicly that he has long supported selling when it benefits the holder and buying when the data, not momentum, supports it. The MVRV reading suggests the data currently does.
Charts and technical data from TradingView show XRP’s full cycle: the November 2024 launch from $0.60, the August 2025 ATH near $3.84, the February 2026 trough near $1.19, and the current price at $1.2863, eight cents above that trough. The dotted support at $1.28-$1.30 held three tests since March. The May 28 low of $1.2663 tested it intraday before recovering.
Every exponential moving average (EMA) and simple moving average (SMA) on the indicator panel signals sell. EMA10 at $1.3399, SMA10 at $1.3406, EMA20 at $1.3652, SMA20 at $1.3881, EMA30 at $1.3766, SMA30 at $1.3900, EMA50 at $1.3904, SMA50 at $1.3953, EMA100 at $1.4614, SMA100 at $1.3904, EMA200 at $1.6643, SMA200 at $1.6635: all 12 overhead. The Hull MA at $1.3031 also signals a sell, marking the second consecutive session without a single buy signal in the MA panel. The Ichimoku Base Line at $1.4075 is neutral.
The relative strength index (RSI) at 32.96 sits three points above the traditional oversold threshold of 30, the closest it has been since the February trough. Stochastic %K at 6.89 is deeply oversold. The Williams Percent Range at -91.51 registers a buy signal from extreme oversold territory. The average directional index (ADX) at 17.50 remains well below 25, confirming a lack of conviction in a directional trend. The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) at -0.0262 and the Momentum at -0.1033 both remain sell signals.
The three signals converging at current levels — RSI approaching 30, Stochastic at 6.89, and Williams %R triggering a buy — alongside ADX at 17.50 confirming no trend, map onto the same technical setup that preceded XRP’s recovery from $1.19 in February. That recovery ran to $1.60 before the CLARITY Act news cycle faded.
The next legislative window for the CLARITY Act runs June-August 2026. The bill requires 60 Senate votes, a merge with the Agriculture Committee version, and resolution of the ethics provision before reaching the floor.
As per SoSoValue data, spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a 2026 weekly record of $60.5 million in inflows the week ending May 15, even as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs bled over $1 billion combined that same week. The institutional demand signal persists at a price level where the average short-term trader has already absorbed 47% in losses.
At $1.28 with a 30-day MVRV of -47.31%, the distance between the current price and the February 2026 trough is 8%. ADX at 17.50 says the trend does not support the downside. The MVRV says the fear has already been priced in. June 2026 is the next test.
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